Kids are about to rule the multiplex once again with Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation set to dominate but we should see our top three films with at least $30 million for the weekend.
It feels like when no one was paying attention, the Hotel Transylvania franchise turned into low key big earners. They don’t land in the top tier of quality for animated films but they definitely have an audience which should explain why tracking for the third film has steadily increased heading into the weekend.
Featuring the voices of Adam Sandler, Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, David Spade, Steve Buscemi, Keegan-Michael Key, Molly Shannon, Fran Drescher, Kathryn Hahn, Jim Gaffigan and Mel Brooks, the first two entries have amassed $831.5 million at the worldwide box office. The last movie opened to a franchise domestic high of $48.4 million back in September 2015 and each film has an average budget of $80 million. This is relatively cheap which is why the returns on these films tend to be pretty high.
These films tend to be critic-proof as the first film was 44% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes while the second entry was a bit higher, but still rotten, at 55%. The third film is winning critics over a bit more with a fresh rating of 64% as of this writing so even critic goodwill seems to be on its side. Incredibles 2 is still going strong but enough time has passed for another children’s film to make an impression. I’m calling about $45 million for the weekend.
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is back in the Die Hard reboot…I mean…original motion picture, Skyscraper. All jokes aside, Dwayne Johnson has really shown much faltering at the box office and that should continue with this film, even if it looks a bit silly. In the film, Johnson plays Will Sawyer, a former FBI agent and U.S. war veteran who now assesses security for skyscrapers. While he’s on assignment in China, the world’s tallest and safest building catches on fire and he gets framed for it. Now a wanted man and on the run, he must find those responsible, clear his name and somehow rescue his family members when they become trapped inside the inferno.
Johnson’s last release was Rampage which just missed the century mark with a gross of $99 million. Some might consider it a flop considering its budget of $120 million but the film was huge overseas and it pushed its worldwide total to $425 million, 37% of which came from China ($156.3 million).
It’s no surprise that the $125 million film is also looking to reap cash from Asian markets. It opens day and date with 3,700 stateside theaters in 56 foreign markets including Hong Kong, France, Australia, Brazil, Korea, Russia and the UK & Ireland with construction in the Middle Kingdom on July 20 via Legendary East, a subsidiary of China’s Wanda Group. Needless to say, if the film underperforms here, the worldwide total is likely to make the film a sizeable hit.
The reviews are mixed at this point with a 51% rotten score of this writing do fans of The Rock care about critics? I think not! I’m seeing it tonight to see how he makes that crane jump and to see Neve Campbell in here rightful place being featured in a big summer film as Johnson’s wife in the film. I’m calling about $35-40 million for the weekend.
Ant-Man And The Wasp will relinquish the top spot after one week on top but that shouldn’t be seen as a failure of any kind. There is increased competition and a bigger second-weekend drop is expected but it should level off after this weekend and managed to exceed the gross of the original. I’m calling about $30 million for the weekend.
Check back on Monday for the full box office results.
