Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw should have no problem maintaining the top spot at the box office despite five new releases that will try to get moviegoers’ attention.
Hobbs & Shaw is a sure bet this weekend because it’s a fun summer flick and, despite the arrival of five new films, it still feels fresh enough to warrant the last-minute summer attention. Movies like this thrive in the month of August, especially if new offerings are weak because there aren’t many other alternatives. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 1, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles & Suicide Squad all scored big during their August runs because they stood out more than the films that were being dumped throughout the month in hopes of gaining some traction. I’m predicting about $28-30 million for Hobbs & Shaw and that higher-end will be achieved if it becomes obvious that the new releases aren’t worth seeing.
The first of the new releases that is likely to do the best is Dora and the Lost City of Gold, based on the popular Dora The Explorer cartoon series. The film is looking to grab the young female and Hispanic and there is a chance it will. The film is based on a pretty popular brand and, as of now, it’s the best-reviewed of the new releases with a 79% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The one caveat here is that the film really hasn’t set box office tracking on fire and there is no real indication that a big debut is in the cards. The main issue at play is that it’s not showing much crossover appeal to those who aren’t familiar with the brand. The fanbase should be enough to get the film to a solid $15-17 million opening.
Up next is Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, directed by André Øvredal and produced and co-written by Guillermo del Toro. The film is based on Alvin Schwartz’s novels that have scared young kids for years. In the film, a group of teens contends with the town’s local haunted house where the Bellows family lived. Sarah, a young girl in the family with horrible secrets, turned her tortured life into a series of scary stories, written in a book that has transcended time. I actually thought this film had a ton of potential to be a surprise August hit, especially when it premiered a TV spot during Super Bowl this year. Since then, however, a ton of interest has seemed to dissipate and it really hasn’t gained the traction necessary to make waves at the box office. There is no RT score as of this writing but having read a few reviews that have dropped, it isn’t looking promising for its critical prospects. I think interest in the novels will get some butts in the seats opening weekend but beyond that, it looks questionable. I’m calling a weekend of about $13 million.
Melissa McCarthy, Tiffany Haddish and Elisabeth Moss lead The Kitchen, based on the DC Vertigo comic book series. This is another film that looked very promising ahead of this weekend but then the reviews came out. Critics are praising the leads but say they are wasted with a script that doesn’t do them justice. As of this writing, the film is currently 16% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. The fanbase of the female trifecta might help things but one has to think a lot of money will be left on the table with this one. I’m calling an opening of about $9-10 million.
The third touching dog movie of the year is upon us with the release of The Art of Racing in the Rain. The film stars This Is Us’ Milo Ventimiglia and is based on Garth Stein’s novel of the same name. I don’t want to entirely count this one out because it’s one of those movies that could pull on the heartstrings enough to gain momentum but, as stated earlier, it’s the third film of this kind released this year after A Dog’s Way Home ($42 million final gross), and A Dog’s Journey ($22.5 million gross). When A Dog’s Journey underperformed I said the market was likely oversaturated with films about dogs released so close to each other so that may not bode well for the third one on deck. The film’s reviews are decidedly mixed with a 59% Rotten Tomatoes score & it might honestly fight some of the Dora audience for attention from younger viewers. I’m predicting about $8 million for the weekend.
Lastly, there is the Tom Shadyac-directed Brian Banks about the NFL prospect who was wrongfully convicted and sent to prison. There hasn’t been much push for the film as far as promotion so it’s one of the new releases that is likely to be D.O.A. The film is currently 55% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and it’s likely to have a blink and you missed it run at the box office. I’m predicting about $2 million for the weekend.
