The box office was supposed to get a jolt of life last weekend but that all changed when The LEGO Movie 2 massively underperformed. In my predictions, I said that film would wake up the sleepy box office and I was wrong but this weekend someone is bound to make an impression and it’s going to be a close call for the number one finish.
Three new wide releases enter the playing field this weekend and so far, all of them are fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a good sign heading into a weekend that’s bound to be pretty crowded due to the holiday. Not only is it President’s Day weekend but Valentine’s Day falls on Thursday and the date nights should continue through the weekend as the day of lovers may become a weekend affair. Since Valentine’s Day caters more to the ladies, Happy Death Day 2U and Isn’t It Romantic have the best shot of succeeding the most but Alita: Battle Angel may jump over Isn’t It Romantic, but the good news for that film may stop there.
Happy Death Day 2U is the followup to 2017’s Happy Death Day which surprised on its opening weekend with a number one finish of $26 million. The film, which centered on a college girl who was caught in a loop, and relives her murder over and over again until she discovers her killer’s identity, was profitable after its first day of release due to its $4.8 million budget. Blumhouse is the kind of making these things on the cheap and they truly benefitted from Death Day which grossed $55.6 million at the domestic box office and $125.4 million worldwide.
Not only was the film a box office hit, but it was also embraced by critics with a 71% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The sequel is currently 65% fresh and seems to be garnering most of the same praise as the original with the small caveat that it may not be as fresh as the first film. Blumhouse made this on the cheap once again at $9 million before P&A and, much like the first film, most of the promotion is being done via social media which worked wonders for the first film. Originally the feature was set to open Thursday but stepped back a day out of respect for the one-year anniversary of the Parkland, FL high school shooting. The decision was to open the film a day early and not hold previews on Tuesday night so the film starts its long weekend on track to take advantage of the date crowd by being fully wide by Thursday. Horror movies are good date night excursions and I think this film is going to benefit the most. Also, the PG-13 rating doesn’t hurt so it definitely broadens the audience of the film. I’m calling about $25-28 million by Monday for the film.
Alita: Battle Angel is likely to take second and even if it surprises and pulls ahead of Death Day 2U, there won’t be much to celebrate about. The Robert Rodriguez-directed film, which is reportedly very beautiful but lacking a strong narrative, wouldn’t be in so much trouble if it wasn’t for the size of its budget. The film reportedly cost $160-170 million to make and some rivals are suggesting the price tag is even higher at $237 million. This is a film that will NEED international grosses to bail it out but it may not be enough for the film to break even in the end because, beyond this weekend, Alita may not have a long life. The film did pick up $32 million from 11 foreign territories last weekend and that’s a decent start but it has a long road to go. The movie was originally scheduled to come out over the holidays against Bumblebee, Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns, and it would’ve been truly buried against that competition so the move was smart but not enough. As of now, the movie is barely fresh at 60% and what’s really going to hurt it, at least on Thursday, is that it doesn’t have the appeal to be the top choice for women and couples on Valentine’s Day. I’m calling about $23-25 million over the holiday.
Also opening today is Isn’t It Romantic, which also held no previews on Tuesday night. The Todd Strauss-Schulson directed comedy starring Rebel Wilson, is about a young woman who is disenchanted with love and mysteriously finds herself trapped inside a romantic comedy. Romantic comedies tend to play well on Valentine’s Day so it should definitely shine on that day and the rest of the weekend will depend solely on word of mouth. The film is currently fresh at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing so that isn’t too bad heading into the weekend. Wilson’s How to Be Single played Valentine’s Day weekend three years ago, opened to $17.8 million and finished stateside with $46.8 million, and $112.3 million worldwide. That film was 47% rotten and still managed to do ok business so Isn’t It Romantic may fare a bit better. I’m calling about $20-22 million over the long holiday.
