Universal Pictures jumped into the crowded October box office last night with First Man and launched to impressive results.
First Man grossed $1.1 million in Thursday night previews. First Man‘s Thursday night is under the $1.4 million grossed by Gravity‘s 10 pm and midnight shows back in October 2013 as well as Fox’s October 2015 The Martian which earned $2.5 million from its Thursday night previews before notching an $18.1 million Friday, $54.3 million opening. First Man is arguably more dramatic in nature than those October outer space spectacles and may not launch as huge but with solid reviews (89% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) it’s still tracking for a launch between $18-24 million and movies like this usually have legs because it’s an awards contender and it appeals to older audiences.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween also got started last night and grossed $750,000 in Thursday night previews. That figure is 25% ahead of the first Goosebumps’ Thursday which was $600,000 at 2,567 locations, a number that translated into a $7.3 million first day. That first chapter starred Jack Black and was made for $58 million. It was a solid October performer for Sony opening to No 1 with $23.6 million. Part two cost significantly cheaper before P&A, an estimated $35 million. Movies aimed at kids don’t always have sizable Thursday night previews because the target audience isn’t’ fully available to see it. The film should see a spike over the weekend, although it’s tracking now between $14-16 million.
The offbeat Bad Times At The El Royale is our last new release to enter the frame and it’s being estimated that the film grossed between $600-700,000 in Thursday night previews. Critics have embraced the film with a fresh rating of 73% on Rotten Tomatoes but whether it’s mainstream enough to breakout is questionable. I saw the film last night, enjoyed it, but it’s certainly not going to be for everyone. The film is tracking at about $8 million for the weekend.
Venom or A Star Is Born could take the top spot this weekend. It’s going to be a very close race because if Venom drops the expected 60% that would mean a still strong $32 million. A Star Is Born is expected to drop 30-35% which would make it land between $27-30 million. A part of me thinks Born could have a slimmer drop which would allow it to sneak ahead but we’ll have to wait and see.
