It’s no secret that Halloween is highly anticipated & early box office tracking suggests that the numbers will reflect that fact.
According to early tracking, the reboot/sequel is easily poised for a $40 million-plus –possibly even $50 million– 3-day weekend opening on October 19, which will easily deliver the 40-year-old classic horror franchise its best domestic box office debut ever, beating the Weinstein/MGM 2007 reboot which opened to $26.3 million.
Typically an R-rated film is a slam dunk with men over 25, however, Halloween is strong with largely everyone. First choice and definite interest for the movie are strong with men over/under 25 and females under 25; unaided is best with the under 25 set.
For horror films, the top domestic openings are Warner Bros.’ It ($123.4 million), Paramount/Skydance’s World War Z ($66.4 million), MGM’s Hannibal ($58 million) New Line’s The Nun ($53.8 million), and Paranormal Activity 3 ($52.5 million) and there’s a shot that Halloween may break into the group. Anything over $40 million puts it ahead of The Conjuring ($41.8 million) and The Conjuring 2 ($40.4 million).
The audience response for Halloween coming out of its TIFF midnight premiere was electric with critics currently giving it an 85% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes off 52 reviews. I honestly think due to that response & it coming out close to the 40th anniversary of the first film (October 25, 1978), the film will likely surge higher on its opening weekend and it will be a huge player through the end of October. It will easily be the highest-grossing film of the franchise by the end of its run. To put things into perspective, here are the final domestic earnings for the franchise without inflation: Halloween ($47 million), 1981’s Halloween II ($25.5 million), 1982’s Halloween III: Season of the Witch ($14.4 million), 1988’s Halloween 4: The Return of Michael Myers ($17.7 million), 1989’s Halloween 5 ($11.6 million), 1995’s Halloween: The Curse of Michael Myers ($15.1 million), 1998’s Halloween: H20 ($55 million), 2002’s Halloween: Resurrection ($30.3 million), 2007’s Halloween ($58.2 million) and 2009’s Halloween II ($33.3 million).
