The multiplex is about to get a little more crowded with the arrival for three new wide releases. One is likely to be king while the others offer their own brand of counterprogramming that should allow them to also have impressive debuts.
Legendary continues to build its monster universe with the release of Godzilla: King of the Monsters, which finds the title character encountering more classic monsters for potential brawls such as Mothra, Rodan, and the three-headed King Ghidorah. The draw here is seeing these monsters go at it and leave destruction in their wake as the human storylines struggle for purpose and screentime. 2014’s Godzilla was generally well-received by critics (75% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) but general moviegoers were a bit mixed on it because, for a film called Godzilla, he wasn’t in it all that much (15 minutes and doesn’t make his first appearance until nearly an hour into the film).
It looks like this sequel is attempting to focus more on the action this go-round and the trailers, which have been beautifully crafted, have pushed the monster action more than the human storylines. The reviews for the film are slipping each day as it carries a 44% rotten score as of this writing. The main complaint is that the script and characters are a bit lazy but even the negative reviews say the action is top notch and it does make good on its promise to feature more of the monster brawls this time around.
Despite mixed responses, 2014’s Godzilla opened to solid numbers ($93.1 million) and ended its domestic run with $200.6 million. The real money was made overseas where it topped $328.4 million for a global tally of $529 million. The international response made up for its $160 million budget and that should be the same here but overseas viewership is going to have to do even more heavy lifting this time around. King of the Monsters is carrying a $170 million budget and it’s definitely not going to open as high as the 2014 film did in the states. The film is debuting in 75 foreign markets with China and Japan being the key players for the film. On the domestic front, I’m predicting about $55 million but if the reviews continue to lean on the negative side heading into Friday, it may end up lower and with a certain Elton John biopic trying to close in on its turf.
The Elton John biopic in question is Rocketman and it heads into the weekend with the best reviews of the wide releases (90% fresh as of this writing) and early Oscar buzz for its star Taron Egerton. We learned with Bohemian Rhapsody that biopics about legends can do very well. Rhapsody was barely fresh at 61% but that didn’t stop the film from scoring a massive $51 million on its opening weekend on its way to $216.4 million domestic and $903.6 million worldwide. The argument here is if Rhapsody can do this on so-so reviews, then Rocketman has the potential to mimic that performance. Elton John’s music is universally loved by the masses much like Queen so the mainstream audience appeal should be high.
There are some detriments in its way but they shouldn’t be huge hurdles. Rocketman is opening in a much more crowded playing field in comparison to Rhapsody so that could prevent it from flying as high. Also, Rocketman isn’t exactly a traditional music biopic. Rocketman puts a Fellini-esque, Andrew Lloyd Webber-like spin on the rock n’ roll biopic which tells the story of John in a way that no other music film has in the past, i.e. Bohemian Rhapsody, The Doors, Ray, etc. Some could be thrown by the film’s more musical approach while others should fully embrace it. Rocketman entered tracking at $25 million and that just seems way too low for a film with this much buzz. I’m calling $45 million for the weekend and I honestly don’t think $50 million is out of the question either.
The counter-programming continues with the release of Ma, the latest Blumhouse horror film starring Octavia Spencer. This film was made on the cheap, as is the Blumhouse way with a reported $5 million budget so it’s likely Ma will see that number and then some on its opening night. The marketing for the film has been pretty tremendous, showcasing the young fresh-faced cast which is part of the film’s target audience while also making sure all the promo shows that Spencer is the true selling point here, which should pull in African American and Hispanic audiences that the other releases may be missing out on. Ma is currently fresh at 61% with most saying that it’s a campy good time which could make for a pretty solid opening weekend. I’m predicting about $20-25 million for the weekend.
Aladdin will also be in the mix of all of this for its second weekend. The live-action adaptation opened above and beyond expectations, last weekend and it actually put up solid numbers on Tuesday ($12 million), which is the second largest Tuesday for a live-action Disney adaptation behind Beauty & the Beast ($17.8 million). Films released on Memorial Day weekend usually take a significant week two hit but they tend to recover after that. Aladdin has really tapped into the mainstream audience that has ignored the so-so reviews and just gotten caught up in the nostalgia and fun of the film. I’m predicting about $35-40 million for its second weekend.
