It’s going to be a close race for number one between holdover Mission: Impossible – Fallout and newcomer, Christopher Robin. There two other new wide releases that will make a decent to minimal impact on the box office chart but I’m thinking number one will be too close to call.
Christopher Robin, a live-action film that continues the Winnie the Pooh story and centers on an older version of the bear’s human buddy, played by Ewan McGregor, will appeal to families and those who are nostalgic for the brand. The family competition is pretty light right now, which also works in its favor, but the detriment seems to be the critical reception. Reviews are mixed as of this rating with the film hitting a rotten score of 56% on Rotten Tomatoes. Good reviews push these films beyond the target audience and since that is lacking a bit in this case, that may kneecap its chances for the top spot. I think it will settle for number two with about $30 million but I wouldn’t be surprised if it overperforms due to the family rush.
That leaves us with Mission: Impossible – Fallout which has seen solid midweek sales and has many on social media declaring it the best movie of the summer. The glowing reviews and solid word of mouth should allow for a solid hold in weekend two. I think it will claim the top spot with about $35 million and the only way it loses out on that is if Christopher Robin sees a surge from families over the weekend.
Our next newcomer is The Spy Who Dumped Me, starring Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon. The R-rated action comedy should appeal to the female demographic and may benefit from the lack of comedies in the marketplace. Once again the Achilles heel here is the reviews. The film is currently rotten on Rotten Tomatoes with 40%, which may prevent it from breaking out. I still think it will see a decent opening in the $17 million range.
Our last newcomer is The Darkest Minds, a YA-adaptation from FOX. The film looks similar to the X-Men movies in its approach, a series of films that FOX has produced over the years, but they really haven’t promoted the film on the level you think they would, even as a mid-tier August release. There was potential here for the film to do decent business but the promotional push hasn’t been too enthusiastic. Reviews, once again, aren’t great with a 15% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes so I doubt it will make a splash beyond the people who interested in seeing a book they love adapted for the screen. I’m calling about $10-12 million for the weekend.
Check back on Monday for the full box office results.
