Disney has already gotten 2019 off to a stellar start with the early March release of Captain Marvel and now they are looking to continue that box office supremacy to close out the month with their live-action adaptation of Dumbo. The film is likely to gain the attention of families but will the mixed reviews kneecap its initial tracking?
Dumbo is actually the first of three live-action Disney adaptations to come out this year. Aladdin follows in May while The Lion King looks to conquer in July. One might think that three adaptations in one calendar year would be a bit much but Disney has done a decent job of spacing them out that I doubt moviegoers will feel the oversaturation. Disney is a reliable brand that rarely misses and since it’s based on a familiar property, there is a bit of a built-in audience for these films.
Dumbo is directed by Tim Burton who found great success with another Disney property in Alice in Wonderland which opened to $116.1 million back in 2010 and grossed $1 billion at the worldwide box office. Dumbo won’t fly that high and was never expected to but it will be a bit of a return to form for the director who hasn’t had a massive hit since the release of Wonderland.
Dumbo is a bit of a different film from the more flashy and out there Wonderland. It’s based on a much older Disney film (released in 1941) and it’s a more old-fashioned family movie. This does have appeal to some moviegoers but it doesn’t possess the same wow factor that may entice people who aren’t as familiar with the original Disney classic.
The big elephant, no pun intended, in the room are the reviews. Initial reaction indicated that the film was the best thing Tim Burton has done in years but reviews since those early screenings have landed in the middle with a rotten score of 54% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Even the negative reviews praise Burton’s visual flair but some call the film overstuffed (the original film is 64 minutes long while this adaptation is 112 minutes). Dumbo entered box office tracking in the $65 million range but now estimates are between $50-65 million due to the mixed reception. A part of me doesn’t want to underestimate Disney or Burton but I think this is the kind of film where reviews do matter a bit so I’m predicting about $55-60 million for the weekend.
Dumbo is the only new wide release this weekend and that leaves us to look at the second weekend of Jordan Peele’s Us. When Get Out was released in 2017, the film dropped a slim 15.4% which is great for any genre, but almost unheard of for horror. That film was powered by strong word of mouth and while Us is getting its fair share of raves, I don’t think the word of mouth is as solid for casual moviegoers this time around. Is Us going to fall like a ton of bricks? No! Just don’t expect it to repeat the leggy business of Get Out. I’m predicting about $35 million for weekend 2.
