Pokémon Detective Pikachu will offer up more competition than last week’s trio of offerings while The Hustle and Poms will seek the female demographic for Mother’s Day weekend. That being said, Avengers: Endgame will still be the top choice for moviegoers and should find itself threepeating over the weekend.
Detective Pikachu may not seem like a mainstream hit at first glance, at least domestically, but the Pokemon brand is still pretty strong and it has a major assist from the voice of Pikachu, Ryan Reynolds. There is a fanbase for Pokemon cemented in recent years by the success of the Pokemon Go mobile app game, even if the presence of the animated series from back in the day isn’t nearly as potent as it once was in the states. The film is vibrant and interesting enough to attract kids and while the brand seems very niche, I think the trailers have sold it as being much better than we thought it would be.
The film is 70% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes which is as good of a result you can expect from a film like this and just good enough to maybe lure in the uninitiated. Ryan Reynolds is the ace in the hole here whose vocal work in the film is earning raves, even from reviewers who didn’t really get into the film. Reynolds has been promoting the film like crazy and it’s doing a lot to entice moviegoers.
Globally, Endgame will still be dominating but Pikachu could be significant in a few markets. Internationally, Pikachu will release in 62 markets through Friday (Russia is not in the opening suite). The film directed by Rob Letterman bowed early in Japan last weekend, grossing $6.9 million locally, though this is not necessarily an indicator market. Despite the popularity of the Pokémon brand in Japan, Pikachu is not expected to over-index there. Part of the reason is that an animated Pokémon film comes out there every year in July, having done so since 1998. As of this writing, the film has pulled in $15 million overseas before its wide opening. As for its launch in the states, I’m calling about $50-55 million and the rest will be based purely on word of mouth.
Avengers: Endgame is benefitting from repeat viewings and just being the most significant film in the marketplace right now. A lot of Endgame’s box office story is not just how it’s performing in the states, but also how well it’s performing globally. It’s already second highest grossing film globally of all time, surpassing Titanic and now it has Avatar’s $2.78 billion in its view to take the top spot. As of today, Endgame has grossed $2.3 billion worldwide and it’s bound to add $115-130 million more from overseas markets this weekend. As for its domestic performance, I’m calling a weekend of $80-85 million and a first-place finish for the third weekend in a row.
A couple of new films will fight for the female demographic this weekend and it’s being led by The Hustle, starring Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson. The film is a femme reboot of the 1988 comedy Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and it’s hoping to tap into ladies looking for a good laugh. It didn’t quite work with Long Shot last weekend but that was a romantic comedy with a political slant while The Hustle is a straight con-artist comedy where the women are running the show and it has the benefit of the female-skewing Mother’s Day weekend. Reviews aren’t very good with a 15% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and it explains why reviews were held off until today but it honestly may not matter for ladies looking for a quick laugh. I’m calling about $12-15 million for the weekend.
Poms is looking to attract the older female demographic and it could possibly have some success if it performs similar to last year’s Book Club, which also catered to that demo. The film stars Diane Keaton, Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Celia Weston, and Rhea Perlman and is about a group of women in a retirement community who start a cheerleading squad. The aforementioned Book Club, which also starred Diane Keaton, opened the third weekend of May last year to $13.5 million and actually had solid legs on its way to a final gross of $68.6 million. It’s possible Poms could perform the same way but interest doesn’t seem on the level when compared to Book Club. Reviews aren’t great as of this writing with a 29% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes but, again, I think this is something that may be ignored by the demo this weekend. I’m calling an opening in the $10-11 million range.
