It’s going to be a big weekend at the box office! Memorial Day Weekend, when the right films are out there for consumers, can be a huge time for the box office and this weekend is likely providing moviegoers with something they really want to see.
There is only one lone wide release this weekend while the holdovers from last week, and likey other entries in the top 5 box office, will see some nice holds this weekend. The film that will clearly dominate the weekend is the Star Wars spinoff, Solo: A Star Wars Story. The highly anticipated film details the early beginnings of Han Solo, the iconic character first played by Harrison Ford in the original set of Star Wars films.
The Star Wars brand has been beyond lucrative since its relaunch with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Disney’s reboot of the Star Wars franchise via the Skywalker saga of Force Awakens and The Last Jedi yielded openings of $247.9 million and $220 million, respectively. The first experiment of a spinoff film that diverted from the traditional Star Wars story was Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, which grossed $155 million during its opening weekend and legged it out to a domestic gross of $532.1 million. This proved that the franchise didn’t need to feature all of its iconic characters in order to get butts in the seats and that the brand recognition alone, is a force at the box office.
Solo falls into the category of Rogue One so an opening in the Force Awakens or The Last Jedi range is out of the question. Not only were those films a continuing story in familiar Star Wars canon, but they were also given December release dates which allowed for more legs as many people were out of school or off from work for an extended period of time over the holidays. Also, despite featuring familiar characters, they aren’t being played by the actor’s who brought them to life. This is more of an issue in the case of Han Solo. Harrison Ford has put his stamp on the role while relative newcomer Alden Ehrenreich has been the subject of mixed notices for his portrayal even before the film was first viewed by critics. He has a lot to prove and this opening weekend will determine if he can bring it beyond the initial rush from fans.
The behind the scenes drama on the film may also entice some moviegoers. The original directing duo, Phil Lord, and Christopher Miller, were replaced (fired) on the project just short of completion of principal photography and director Ron Howard was brought in to not only finish the film but also re-shoot three-quarters of the film in order to receive lone director credit from the DGA. Many people may be curious to see if Howard pulled off making a coherent motion picture while others may be interested in seeing if there are any traces left of the previous directors’ work.
According to critics, the film isn’t the trainwreck the behind the scenes turmoil would indicate. The film is certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with a 71% as of this writing. While that’s still fresh, it is on the lower end of what most were expecting. At the end of the day, I doubt these reviews will affect the opening weekend like some rival studios are suggesting. Fans will see the film regardless and how it performs beyond this weekend will be based solely on their word of mouth.
Memorial Day weekend hasn’t seen a $100M+ opening since 2014’s X-Men: Days of Future Past ($110.5 million), with Disney weathering several misfires such as Alice Through the Looking Glass ($33.5 million), Tomorrowland ($42.6 million) and Prince of Persia ($37.8 million). In recent years, many have questioned whether the four-day holiday weekend even matters anymore or whether moviegoers have abandoned it. Disney’s 2007 threequel Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($139.8 million) still stands as the holiday’s record opener, and it would come as no surprise if Solo beats that figure.
I’m thinking that Solo will indeed beat that figure and while tracking has it debuting in the $135-170 million range, I think it will land somewhere in the middle with about $150 million, which allows it to break the Memorial Day Weekend record.
Eyes will also be on holdover from last weekend, Deadpool 2. The film has performed admirably during the week with record grosses for Monday and Tuesday for an R-rated film. The Marvel title will lose some of its audience to Solo but a lot of the audience is also different enough to ensure that Deadpool 2 may hold well (Solo caters more to families while Deadpool 2 has the R-rated audience in its grasp). I’m predicting a 55% drop to about $56 million for the weekend.
