In a summer season that is filled with sequels, this weekend brings us our most sequel heavy weekend yet. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, Equalizer 2 & Unfriended: Dark Web all hope to make an impression this weekend and they’ll likely succeed with their respective target audiences.
Likely to lead the newcomers, and possibly take the top spot from Hotel Transylvania 3, is Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again. The film arrives just over 10 years to the day that the first film was released and proved be one of the best examples of counterprogramming to date. Mamma Mia! was released the same weekend as The Dark Knight and while the latter film clearly dominated all the competition, Mamma Mia! was able to tap into an audience that wasn’t trying to see a dark superhero film and they made the popular musical centered around the Abba catalog a huge hit. Mamma Mia! held the distinction of being the highest grossing live-action musical of all time until 2017’s Beauty and the Beast topped it. It opened to $27.7 million and legged out quite well to a $144 million domestic total. The worldwide haul was a fantastic $615 million. Ten years is a significant gap between sequels, but the fan base seems likely to turn out and there’s little else marketing an older and female crowd.
As of this writing, the Rotten Tomatoes score is fresh at 91%. The first film was rotten at 54% and that didn’t stop it from being an audience favorite and improved reviews could boost opening weekend numbers. Despite the gap between films, I think that the fan base will show up and give the sequel a solid opening weekend. I’m calling $35 million with a likely shot to land the number one spot.
Our next sequel is actually a first for its star Denzel Washington. It’s crazy to think that over his whole career he hasn’t done at least one sequel but Equalizer 2 represents his first and it makes sense because the concept allows for some franchise potential. Antoine Fuqua is back directing and it’s the fourth collaboration between the two after 2001’s Training Day (for which Washington won an Oscar), 2014’s The Equalizer, and 2016’s The Magnificent Seven. Costars include Melissa Leo, Pedro Pascal, Ashton Sanders, and Bill Pullman.
Denzel Washington is actually fairly consistent at opening films well, particularly his more action-oriented efforts. The first Equalizer, which is based quite loosely a 1980s TV show starring Edward Woodward, made $34.1 million for its start and ended up at $101 million overall domestically. Two years later, The Magnificent Seven took in $34.7 million out of the gate and a $93 million total. Nearly all of Washington’s films in the genre in the past decade or so have achieved mid-20s or more in their premieres.
If not for Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, I would say Equalizer 2 would’ve taken the top spot but it will have to settle for second or most likely third, depending on the second-weekend performance of Hotel Transylvania 3. There is no Rotten Tomatoes score as of this writing but the first film came in at the lower end of the fresh scale with a 60% and that didn’t seem to really impact the box office in a negative way. I’m calling about $30 million for its opening weekend.
Our last sequel could end up being the most profitable out of the bunch, even if it doesn’t debut to huge numbers. Unfriended: Dark Web is a sequel to 2015’s Unfriended which grossed $32 million at the domestic box office. You’re probably wondering how did such a lower tier gross earn a sequel? Well, the film turned a profit after its $15.8 million opening weekend due to its minuscule budget of just $1 million. This was a found footage horror film from Blumhouse Productions, a company that has made an art out of making low budget films and turning them into box office gold.
The first film was certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with a 63% and the sequel has a fresh rating of 67% as of this writing. These are pretty good scores for a horror film and it could get people out to see it that may be a bit unsure about it. Do I think it will match the $15 million opening of the first? No, but I can see about $12-13 million and yet another hit for the Blumhouse as this was made likely on the cheap once again.
