We’re going to have a new number one film this week as a total of 4 new wide releases jump into the crowded box office fray to get a little attention.
Expected to finish first is Cars 3, which has always seemed like the rotten stepchild of Pixar’s film canon. The franchise has fared well with moviegoers but critics have always viewed them in a much less enthusiastic light when compared to other Pixar releases. This new entry seems to be faring a bit better with them than the last installment (it currently has a 66% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes while the second film came in rotten with a 39%). A lot of kids are out of school right now and they currently don’t have a film out there right that’s catching their attention and this could be the one until Despicable Me 3 is released in a few weeks.
Some will question why we’ve had to wait 14 years for a second Incredibles from Pixar, while in an 11-year span we’ve had three installments of the toon auto series. It boils down to merchandise revenue, and since its inception, Cars goods have generated well in excess of $10 billion in worldwide retail sales. Compare this to the global box office of the previous films, which have earned in excess of $1 billion off combined production costs of $320M, and that’s a pretty solid revenue stream for Disney.
The opening weekend gap between Cars & Cars 2 was actually pretty good ($60.1 million versus $66.1 million for the sequel) and I don’t expect much of a difference for the third installment. I’m calling an opening in the $55-60 million range.
While Wonder Woman will likely finish second in the $35 million range after 2 strong weekends at number one, the fight between third an fourth will be pretty close if the film’s exceed expectations. All Eyez On Me, the Tupac Shakur biopic, won’t see Straight Outta Compton numbers but it could beat its current box office tracking as awareness appears to be gaining traction. Current advance ticket sales are brisk on Fandango, ranking as the site’s No. 3 seller today and the marketing push has been more aggressive the last few weeks. The one dilemma is that reviews, as of this writing, aren’t out yet and that’s not usually a good sign this close to the opening. Audiences may ignore this entirely and I can see the film coming in around $20-25 million for the weekend.
Following close behind it will be Rough Night which is tapping in on the female market with its brand of R-rated raunchy laughs. The film is about a wild bachelorette party that accidentally takes the life of a male stripper and stars Scarlett Johansson, SNL‘s Kate McKinnon, Zoe Kravitz and Broad City‘s Ilana Glazer. The film’s reviews aren’t great as of this writing (42% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes) but neither were the reviews for last summer’s surprise hit, Bad Moms. That film was rotten at 58% but spoke to its target audience and grossed $183 million worldwide ($100 million on the domestic front) on a $20 million budget. Rough Night carries the same production budget and seems similar in tone so I could see an opening in the $17-20 million range and where it goes from there is all based on word of mouth.
Our next new film will be battling it out with The Mummy for fifth place which should see a steep drop in the 60% range to about $12.5 million for the weekend. The new film in question which could come in just below this number or surprise and exceed it, is 47 Meters Down. The shark thriller starring Mandy Moore & Claire Holt looked like it was being dumped here to die but it has low key been getting a solid media push and has also been gaining awareness on social media. The biggest surprise is this is currently the best reviewed new release of the weekend with solid 75% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Last year The Shallows, another shark thriller released during the summer, surprised when it grossed $120 million on a slim $17 million budget. That film also garnered surprisingly good reviews and while 47 Meters Down won’t match the $16.7 million opening of last year’s terror in the ocean film, it should still do decently with about $10-12 million.
Check back here on Monday for the final box office results!
