Pennywise will likely top the weekend box office once again with It: Chapter Two but the ladies of Hustlers are bound to make an impression that could lead to it outperforming its already impressive box office tracking.
Hustlers always seemed poised to be a modest box office hit. The cast, consisting of Jennifer Lopez, Constance Wu, Lili Reinhart, Keke Palmer, Julia Stiles, Lizzo & Cardi B, has enough mainstream appeal to ensure a decent opening but that’s where the bus was likely to stop. The film was fast-tracked in a major way with a 28 shooting day schedule in March of this year with a release date of September 13 announced soon after. There was a feeling that the project was being rushed by STX Entertainment because the company was in a dire need of a hit and wanted to strike while the iron was hot. STX scored in January with Kevin Hart’s The Upside turning into a surprise $108 million domestic earner but flops such as Ugly Dolls & Poms has set them back and Hustlers is their chance to get things back on track.
When the trailer for Hustlers premiered in July, it became clear that good fortune was on its way. The trailer immediately sparked interest from women, multi-cultural audiences and the LBGTQ community. By the time the film hit box office tracking, it was looking at a $23 million, which impressed most box office experts who really didn’t see the film coming. In the weeks leading up to its release, the film kept climbing in tracking, going as high as $30 million as we head into the weekend.
The film, based on Jessica Pressler’s New York Magazine article “The Hustlers at Scores” about the strippers who turned the tables on their greedy male clients during the millennial recession, had one real hurdle in its way and that would be the reviews. When it was announced that it was premiering at the Toronto International Film Festival the industry was shocked because it was clear that STX knew they had something good on their hands and no one was expecting it to play at all during the festival circuit. Tiff can make or break certain films because the early word, both good and bad, can directly affect box office when it comes to those who pay attention to critical reviews.
Color everyone surprised when Hustlers received near-universal praise at the festival for its take on female empowerment and its commentary on women in the workplace. Writer and director Lorene Scafaria is drawing comparisons to Martin Scorsese in her use of style and technique (fitting considering he hovered over the project back when it entered development in 2016) but the will praise is going to its star, Jennifer Lopez, who is earning genuine Oscar buzz for her role. Critics are calling her turn in Hustlers her best performance since Steven Soderbergh’s Out of Sight in1999 and just like that, Hustlers has gone from commercial trash to a prestige heist dramedy with a strong message of female empowerment. As of this writing, Hustlers is 95% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with 42 reviews collected.
The biggest live-action opening for Jennifer Lopez is her 2005 comedy Monster-in-Law ($23.1 million) and I think Hustlers is on its way to topping that. The film should also become the biggest opener for STX, topping the $23.7 million opening of Bad Moms. I’m thinking Hustlers over indexes and scores a weekend of about $30 million.
That opening should keep It: Chapter Two safe to repeat at number one unless Hustlers really storms out of the gate. It: Chapter Two is trailing about 27% behind the pace of the first film but it still crossed the $100 million mark on Tuesday ($104.6 million) and although it’s lagging, the gross is nothing to sneeze at for the horror genre. I’m thinking the film falls hard this weekend but should still maintain the top spot with a gross of about $36 million.
Speaking of how reviews from Tiff can make or break a film, they certainly have broken The Goldfinch, based on Donna Tartt’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel about a 13-year old who survives a terrorist bombing at an art museum where his mother dies. While staggering through the debris, he takes with him a small Dutch Golden Age painting called The Goldfinch, which becomes a singular source of hope for him as he descends into a world of crime. The film had Oscar potential written all over it but many noticed that it wasn’t playing at some of the festivals that prestige films go to and advanced screenings were scarce. It became clear why the film avoided an Oscar push when it premiered at Tiff and was torn apart by critics. The film currently is rotten at 29% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and that’s no good for an adult-skewing drama. Throw in a runtime of 2 1/2 hours and the film, starring Nicole Kidman, Ansel Elgort, Sarah Paulson, & Jeffrey Wright among others, is now looking unlikely to match its tracking which had it debuting in the $15 million range. I think the negative reviews have kneecapped this one early and now we’re looking at an opening in the $8 million range.
