Leave it to the little guys of Toy Story 4 to save us from some big box office problems. After a few weekends of subpar box office openings, Toy Story 4 is sure to end all of that with a massive debut.
Pixar has this innate ability to connect with children and adults alike and the Toy Story brand has done that since it launched back in 1995. Parents won’t roll their eyes taking their kids to see this one, in fact, they may be even more excited to catch up with Woody, Buzz & friends. It’s this universal appeal that nearly guarantees solid box office.
Another big takeaway from this film and why the other film’s the last few weekends have come up short is that moviegoers really will save their money for a quality product when it comes down to it. Avengers: Endgame has the largest opening weekend of all-time because it was an event film that everyone wanted to see. John Wick: Chapter 3 became their franchises biggest opener because it’s doing something different with action films and moviegoers wanted to see that. Give them more of the same and they will simply save their money until the next must-see film arrives. Toy Story 4 is that next must-see film.
It doesn’t hurt that critics love it with a 98% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It was sitting at 100% for a bit but there is a naysayer in there that ruined the party. Right now on domestic tracking, Toy Story 4 is ahead of Finding Dory ($135 million opening) but below the record opener of all-time, Incredibles 2 ($182.6 million opening). There are some out there that think Toy Story 4 could top the latter’s opening while others think Incredibles 2 did so well because of the 14-year gap between films and built up anticipation. We didn’t really NEED Toy Story 4 but the fact that buzz is good is almost like we’re getting this gift we didn’t know we deserved. I’m predicting about $165 million for the weekend and a welcome boost to a sagging box office.
There is another toy film opening this weekend and it’s on the opposite end of the spectrum The killer doll Chucky is back in Orion Pictures’ remake of Child’s Play and while many were against this getting the reboot treatment, social media has seen the word of mouth become a bit more positive while reviews are surprisingly decent. The film stars Aubrey Plaza, Gabriel Bateman, Brian Tyree Henry, and Mark Hamill as the voice of Chucky and is expected to attract multi-cultural moviegoers and the under 25 set. As of this writing, the film is 70% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes which is VERY surprising considering that the studio lifted the review embargo on this one just a day before its release. They either didn’t know what they had or they were just being cautious. Child’s Play is poised to be a bit of a modest hit which, if it is, I’m guessing it will just fund another Orion Pictures film because they only have the rights to this title and this alone. Meaning, no sequels unless they pull some funny business or work out a deal with the other rights holders. The Child’s Play brand is still surprisingly fresh with the recent DTV sequels, which are not related to this film, being well-received by horror fans. I’m predicting about $18-20 million for the weekend.
