I’m going to get this out of the way now: The $177.4 million opening of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is not a bad start at all. It’s the third-highest opening for the month of December and it’s going to perform exceptionally well over the next 10 days because we are in the 12 days of box office where just about every film gets a boost. The problem with the opening, for most box office analysts, is that it shows diminishing returns from film to film and they’re choosing to focus on this negative trend. There has definitely been a drop but let’s just ignore some of the negative feedback out there that this opening is some kind of a flop.
There was definitely a fanboy rush for The Rise of Skywalker. The film opened to $40 million in Thursday night previews and went on to take in $90 million on Friday. The Thursday preview number is factored into that total so the true Friday gross is $50 million. Judging from the start, many felt a $195-200 million opening was in play but fans rushed out early for the film which caused the Saturday to drop heftier than anticipated from the Friday gross ($47.4 million). This caused the estimate to come down which resulted in the $177.4 million opening. That is below the $200 million the film was tracking at and below the $195 million of early estimates so you’re probably wondering why I’m not labeling this some kind of failure.
Let’s take into consideration that The Rise of Skywalker is opening much later in the month than Force Awakens, Rogue One and Last Jedi did, and the Saturday was a crazy busy shopping day with Christmas only being a few days away and that was one of the factors that affected a lot of movie business. Force Awakens (December 18) had a week of play before Christmas served as its second weekend. There was a similar situation for Rogue One the following year, except Christmas fell on a Sunday, not a Friday like in 2015. Last Jedi had a lot of breathing room before Christmas 2017 with the holiday falling on the Monday outside its second weekend. The Rise of Skywalker is definitely going to see huge business beginning Christmas day and through the weekend. While the downtick in grosses might be of some concern, this film is still making money and then some.
That’s not to say that the polarizing response to The Last Jedi is not a factor. I’m sure that played some kind of part and the 55% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes was also an issue. Oddly enough, The Last Jedi was 91% fresh with a rotten 43% audience score and The Rise of Skywalker had a reversal of fortune with its audience score coming at 86%. What is even more telling is the CinemaScore. The Rise of Skywalker received a “B+”, which is the lowest of the franchise. Even The Last Jedi, which received such a visceral critical response, received an “A.” This is the only part that gives me pause as to where the film is headed but we’ll have a clearer picture as we head into Christmas. Internationally, The Rise of Skywalker delivered a $198 million debut overseas from 52 markets, giving the film a $373.5 million global launch.
Dropping to second is Jumanji: The Next Level with $26.5 million. That’s a drop of 55.3% but that was to be expected with the arrival of Star Wars. Jumanji is about to level off as we head into Christmas as it’s likely to be one of the top choices for families. The first Jumanji film fared well against The Last Jedi in 2017 and I expect The Next Level to hold its own given that The Rise of Skywalker has arrived and the initial opening weekend rush is out of the way. Jumanji: The Next Level has a domestic total of $102.3 million to date and internationally, Jumanji added another $32.6 million from 52 markets this weekend, bringing the film’s overseas total to $210 million for a global tally that now stands at $312 million.
In third we find Frozen 2 which grossed $12.9 million, down 31.9% from the previous weekend. Frozen 2 is still going to be a player through Christmas and it’s about to top the $400 million total of the first film (maybe even on Christmas day which would be very fitting). Frozen 2 has grossed $387.2 million at the domestic box office and internationally the film’s total is now over $717 million for a global tally reaching $1.103 billion, making it the fourth-largest animated release of all time worldwide.
In fourth, we experience the true box office disaster of Cats which grossed $6.6 million over the weekend. For a film that cost $80-90 million to make, this is a truly horrific start. Even during the month of December, which is a high tide that raises all boats, this is just too low of a start for it to really rebound. Universal Pictures is hoping this pulls a The Greatest Showman, which turned an $8.8 million pre-Christmas weekend into $174.3 million by the end of its run but even though The Greatest Showman wasn’t loved by critics, audiences LOVED the film which is why it became a word of mouth sensation. Cats has a “C+” CinemaScore which means fans of the Broadway musical didn’t even love it so it has quite the fight on its hands.
Rounding out the top five is Knives Out which continues to hold well with $6.5 million. The film dropped a slim 28.8% and now has a domestic total of $89.9 million. The film will clear $100 million sometime after Christmas and as Star Wars fans debate the merits of that new film, The Last Jedi director Rian Johnson can now sip some tea over the success of Knives Out since he took such a fan beating after the release of his Star Wars film. internationally the film added another $6.4 million for an overseas total that now stands at $96 million for a global tally reaching $185.6 million with January releases in Germany and Japan still to come.
Check out the full top ten results below:
| Film | Total | % Change | Gross to Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Onward | $10,601,952 | -72.9% | $60.3 |
| Bloodshot | $9,176,695 | NEW | $9.17 |
| I Still Believe | $9,103,614 | NEW | $9.10 |
| The Invisible Man | $5,890,805 | -61.1% | $64.3 |
| The Hunt | $5,304,455 | NEW | $5.3 |
| Sonic the Hedgehog | $2,522,584 | -67.3% | $145.7 |
| The Way Back | $2,356,115 | -71.2% | $13.3 |
| The Call of the Wild | $2,226,720 | -67.1% | $62 |
| Emma. | $1,295,215 | -73% | $9.9 |
| Bad Boys for Life | $1,102,208 | -63.5% | $204.2 |
