So far Marvel has been one of the few entities not affected by the summer box office fatigue (Well Disney/Marvel, Marvel’s Dark Phoenix is a much different story) and they hope to continue their box office reign with Spider-Man: Far From Home, which officially ends the current phase of Marvel films and perhaps hints at what’s to come.
Spider-Man: Far From Home already got things started overseas in China, Japan & Hong Kong and grossed an impressive $111 million from those three markets alone. The early success of the film got word of mouth started on a very high note and it has honestly permeated through social media leading up to its domestic release. The worldwide gross of Avengers: Endgame, which has hit $2.764 billion as of this weekend, is definitely playing a part in the increased interest in what Far From Home has to offer. The Marvel/Disney brand is at an all-time high and this latest entry certainly benefits from that.
It was originally reported that Far From Home would not hold previews on Monday night but it has since been revealed that the film will have midnight showings in several locations. The preview nights have seen some films open as early as 4 PM so it’s surprising that Spider-Man didn’t follow suit but giving it a midnight release in previews certainly gives it a special must-see factor. Some are saying this is the first pure midnight release for a film like this since The Dark Knight Rises. The Tuesday launch is also smart because it’s bound to be a big day for the film and launching it Wednesday would’ve hurt some of its box office since some travel before the holiday. Far From Home also has 17 days of play (as well as all the Imax theaters) before The Lion King arrives and dominates the rest of the July box office.
Far From Home entered box office tracking at $154 million for the holiday weekend but some in the industry are pointing to the fact that this summer has seen many tentpole releases coming in well below their initial tracking. Toy Story 4 opened to a franchise-high of $120.9 million but the story most of the weekend was how it failed to match its $160 million initial box office tracking. At least Toy Story 4 performed well because other summer releases have come up short. Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International and Godzilla; King of the Monsters were supposed to do bigger business, at least on opening weekend, than they did but they all opened soft and didn’t have strong legs in the weeks following their release. Will the same happen to Spider-Man: Far From Home?
I think Far From Home will buck this trend a bit because there is a lot working in its favor. The movie is the last chapter of Phase 3 of the MCU and it is the first film of the brand to take place after the events of Avengers: Endgame. I won’t spoil Endgame for the small few that haven’t seen it but a lot of fans will want to know what the MCU world is like in the aftermath of that film.
Spider-Man: Far From Home is also being embraced by critics (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) and many of them say it’s a near-perfect follow-up to Endgame and it gives a bit of a hint where the MCU may be headed in the future. The film is also described as a superhero film that actually functions as a bit of romantic comedy due to the growing relationship between Peter Parker (Tom Holland) and MJ (Zendaya). This aspect will allow it to appeal to a broader demographic. I’m thinking that Spider-Man: Far From Home sees about $145-150 million over the long holiday weekend.
July 3 gives yet another horror film after Child’s Play and Annabelle Comes Home with Midsommar, Ari Aster’s follow-up to Hereditary. Midsommar looks crazy in the best way possible and definitely has a trailer that has built interest. The film follows a teenage guy (Jack Reynor) who holds back from breaking up his girlfriend (Florence Pugh) due to a personal tragedy in her life. This emotional build-up occurs as they both head to a crazy nine-day Sweden festival with their friends. The fest only happens every 90 years, a Swedish-puritan type celebration of love and glee and horrific results. Critics love the film so far (83% on Rotten Tomatoes) and they also liked his previous film, Hereditary which allowed the film to open to $13.5 million on its way to a $44 million domestic gross. The one caveat here is that while critics and horror fans embraced Hereditary (I personally loved it) many casual moviegoers weren’t pleased and actually greeted the film with a “D+” CinemaScore, which sometimes shows the disconnect between critics and casual movie fans. I’ve been scratching my head on predicting this film’s box office opening because it has some potential to do solid business but any kind of dismal word of mouth could kill it. I’m going to predict about $13 million for the holiday weekend and it will all come down to word of mouth after that.
