It’s going to be a long 5 day weekend at the box office as families could make a trip to the movies their option for entertainment over the long holiday weekend. Can Justice League repeat at number one after a soft opening weekend? Or will a new offering from Pixar end its reign sooner than expected?
I won’t lie to you. I completely forgot Pixar’s Coco was opening this weekend. This is how out of touch I can be with offerings for a younger demographic. It’s a film that wasn’t on my radar but judging from the talk on social media, this latest offering from Pixar is speaking to a variety of potential moviegoers. Not only does Pixar usually appeal to the young and old, but Coco has the advantage of bringing in the Hispanic audience due to it featuring characters of Hispanic descent. The Lee Unkrich-Adrian Molina animated musical follows young boy Miguel’s journey to the other side where he meets his dead relatives and discovers great secrets about his family. The film is being primed in 268 Spanish-language locations so not only will this expand well domestically, but it could also have large international appeal in territories that may normally ignore animated films. It should be noted that the film has already picked up $50 million from Mexico where, in its local currency, is the highest grossing film of all time.
Adding to its good fortune is that Pixar seems to have done it again from a creative standpoint because it’s very fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing with a 94%. Kid’s films tend to be critic-proof (hell, even The Emoji Movie made decent money) but great reviews for kid’s films make it clear to parents that they won’t have to suffer through the film just because they want to see it. It implies that there is something for them to love as well and this is something that Pixar has an excellent track record with.
Some have suggested that the sexual harassment allegations against Pixar’s John Lasseter could ding the box office a bit but I doubt that will be the case. He’s merely one man and Pixar encompasses so many different people who have brought this film to life and the poor decisions of one, likely won’t make people stay away.
For comparison’s sake, Last Thanksgiving, Disney’s Moana made $82 million over the long weekend and carried the box for three weekends before Rogue One: A Star Wars Story came into play and ruled the box office through December. Frozen, another animated feature, has the distinction of having the best Thanksgiving five-day opening of all-time at $93.6 million. I calling a five-day opening in the $60-65 million range while the 3 day should be in the $40-45 million range.
Everyone will be looking at the second weekend of Justice League which actually came in below early estimates with $93.8 million during its opening. That was well below the $110-120 million it was track so does that mean it will also underestimate in weekend two? Well, there is a possibility it could but it should be very thankful that it has Thanksgiving in play because it will likely soften the cushion of its second-weekend drop. There should be no 69% weekend 2 drop that Batman v. Superman witnessed but it will still be hefty. If it drops a little more than half in weekend two, it could make $40-42 million over three days. That seems to be the industry estimate but a part of me thinks that estimate is slightly too kind. If the film debuted below expectations why would its second weekend not also come in lower than most tracking? A opening below $100 million, in my opinion, suggests that it didn’t reach the casual moviegoer and really only interest fans of DC who wanted to witness the superhero mashup. So with all that in mind, I’m predicting $36-39 million over the three days and $45-50 million over five.
Wonder is going to be one to watch this weekend as the film should still be the top choice for counter-programming. The film surprised with a $27 million opening weekend, surpassing its $9 million tracking estimate, and has been receiving tremendous word of mouth. This is the kind of film that gets a heavy response over the Thanksgiving Day holiday because it has a strong message for families, which makes it primed for family viewing over the long weekend. Think back to 2009’s The Blind Side as a solid example of this. That film dominated the Thanksgiving holiday and beyond because it appealed to families and Wonder should perform similarly. I’m predicting $18-20 million over three days and possibly $27-30 million over five. This is a film that bested its opening weekend tracking by 96% so I wouldn’t be surprised if it continued to overperform.
Check back after the long weekend to see the final box office results on Monday
