With Blade Runner 2049, underperforming last weekend, that leaves room for one of our new wide releases to take the top spot. The spooky Friday the 13th release date doesn’t hurt either.
While Happy Death Day doesn’t seem like it has a ton of buzz, it has been building steam via social media and since this film is targeting the youth market, that’s exactly where it needs to be generating interest. In the film, a college student (Jessica Rothe) relives the day of her murder with both its unexceptional details and terrifying end until she discovers her killer’s identity. The film is being promoted like a throwback to the slasher films of the 80s and that’s a sub-genre of horor that has been missing from multiplexes lately. The film carries a fresh rating of 71% as of this writing on Rotten Tomatoes and could perform well throughout October if fans respond to it. I’m predicting an opening in the $20 million range but it could go higher if it can sustain the momentum it gains on Friday the 13th, which will likely be it’s biggest day at the box office.
Our other wide release is The Foreigner with Jackie Chan and even though it seems like he has been missing in action, Chan has been having big box office success in China. This film is a bit different from what he’s known for in the states, which is mostly comedy and off the wall action, but there seems to be some interest in the film for a decent opening. The film tells the story of humble London businessman Quan (Chan), whose long-buried past erupts in a revenge-fueled vendetta when the only person left for him to love — his teenage daughter — is taken from him in a senseless act of politically-motivated terrorism. In his relentless search for the identity of the terrorists, Quan is forced into a cat-and-mouse conflict with a British government official ( Pierce Brosnan), whose own past may hold clues to the identities of the elusive killers.
The film carries a fresh rating of 80% as of this writing on Rotten Tomatoes and many are saying this is Chan’s personal version of Taken, which surprised when it was first released. This film likely won’t match that success but I see potential for a $10-12 million opening weekend and it will likely do even more business overseas.
So where does that leave Blade Runner 2049? It will take second place but it will be lucky if it drops less than 50% which is not good for a film that cost $150 million to make. I’m guess a drop in the 50-53% range which would put it at about $15-16 million for the weekend.