Despite a strong second weekend showing from Hidden Figures, the normally robust MLK weekend was a bit muted this year but a couple of films enter the marketplace this weekend that should make a bit of an impression.
Split, from M. Night Shyamalan, comes into play this weekend with solid reviews (77% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) and a restored interest in his work after his comeback with The Visit in 2015. Interest in the film has seemed to rise in the last few weeks and tracking is said to be increasing as its release date draws closer. If The Bye Bye Man can over perform (which received dismal reviews) then a thriller with a more solid critical showing should be able to get butts in the seats this weekend. I’m predicting $25 million and a first place finish for Split.
Vin Diesel has had luck resurrecting his old franchises in the past and he’s hoping to do that again this weekend with XXX: The Return of Xander Cage. The original XXX opened back in 2002 to about $44 million but it came out during a time when Vin Diesel’s star was on the rise. That’s not to say to he’s not popular anymore. He has become a huge social media presence, most notably on Facebook, and it has served a lot of his projects well. He definitely has fans and this film could be the right appetizer they want until The Fate of the Furious opens. This is one of those films that will be positioned to do well on an international level so all the pressure won’t be on the domestic front. Diesel actually has a decent following overseas so this could be a pretty good investment, even though it won’t open or finish as high as the first film in the States. I’m predicting a second place finish and abut $20-23 million for the weekend.
The only other new release of significance is The Founder, starring Michael Keaton. I originally thought this was positioned for awards but it hasn’t generated the necessary buzz to be a factor, despite a performance by Keaton that critics have been giving major kudos to. The film is at 82% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes which is very solid but I don’t think it’s going to be enough for the film to break out. I’m calling $3 million for the weekend and hopefully, it finds an audience once people can view it at home.
As for the holdovers, most of the openers from last week will be afterthoughts but Hidden Figures will be one to watch in week three as well as the ever-expanding La La Land, which has seen its weekend grosses increase consistently. Hidden Figures might lose a little ground this weekend but it will still put up a solid showing with about $15-16 million for the weekend. It should be close between Figures and La La Land which might see $12-13 million but could possibly continue to grow if word of mouth continues to be strong.
Check back here Monday to see if my predictions come close to the actual results.
