All eyes are on Black Panther’s second weekend after its record-breaking start and two new wide releases also try to make some kind of an impression.
There is no doubt that Black Panther will retain the top spot this weekend but the big story is if it will have one of the best second weekends at the box office. Among second-weekend champs, Force Awakens owns the crown with $149.2 million (-40%), but in the MCU it’s The Avengers with $103 million (-50%). In total, Black Panther will rank either second or third behind Force Awakens. Jurassic World has the second-best sophomore weekend with $106.5 million.
The “A+” CinemaScore, superb word of mouth, glowing reviews, and moviegoers taking multiple trips to the theater to see the superhero film is making the second weekend a tough one to call. A lot of tracking is low-balling the potential much like they did with the opening weekend but they also suggest it could come in above expectations for its second weekend. Remember that the opening weekend tracked as low as $90 million at one point and it came in higher than its $180 million projection with a gross that hit $202 million. I’m going to predict a second weekend of about $104 million but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it held even better than that.
The first of two new wide releases is the comedy Game Night, starring Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams. Comedy hasn’t had a lot of luck recently with only two releases last year really doing significant business (Girls Trip – $115.1 million, Daddy’s Home 2 – $104 million). This could be why the tracking for Game Night is all over the place. Ranging from $13-22 million in some circles. What has me thinking that this will debut on the higher end of things is that the reviews are pretty good as of this writing (83% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) and that could peak some interest from those who were hesitant to see it. I’m calling about $18 million for the weekend.
Lastly, we have the sci-fi action film, Annihilation, starring Natalie Portman, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Tessa Thompson, Gina Rodriguez and Oscar Isaac. The film follows a biologist played by Natalie Portman, who after her husband’s venture into a dangerous jungle zone goes array, decides to lead a posse into the environmental unknown. sci-fi can be a tough sell at the box office because it’s such a niche audience but what does allow it to break out a bit is if critics embrace it (ala Arrival) and this film does have critic support with a 92% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Word of mouth will need to be significant but I’m predicting a $12-13 million start.
Check back Monday for the final box office results!
