Despite the presence of a young and current-day Will Smith, along with the kooky bunch of The Addams Family, Joker will likely still be the film of choice to top the box office for the second weekend in a row.
Joker stunned insiders when it came out of the gate with the best October opening of all-time ($96.2 million) and it continues to break records for the month of October with stellar weekday showings on Monday and Tuesday. Monday beat Venom’s record with $9.7 million and it topped the Tuesday October record with $13.9 million. All of those security concerns don’t seem to be scaring moviegoers away and many are giving the adult-skewing comic book film a chance. As of this writing, the domestic total is at $119.8 million of a $60 million budget. Some naysayers suspect a 60% drop is in play but I’m thinking that’s too hefty. I believe it falls between 50-55% this weekend and a $42-45 million second weekend is in the cards.
Second place is going to be tight and I want to give it to my boy Big Willie but I think the family-friendly antics of The Addams Family will have a slight edge. The adults are familiar with the brand so they’ll likely enjoy it with their kids and the month of October will be a bit of a factor because people are already feeling the Halloween spirit and The Addams Family does have a bit of a ghoulish factor attached to it. Tracking for the film, which features the vocal talent of Oscar Isaac, Charlize Theron, Chloë Grace Moretz, Finn Wolfhard, Nick Kroll, Bette Midler, Allison Janney, Elsie Fisher, and Snoop Dogg, is looking good with younger females and families. There is no Rotten Tomatoes score as of this writing but this one may be review-proof either way. I’m calling an opening of about $30 million.
In our next film, you get two Will Smith’s for the price of one in Gemini Man. The film, directed by Ang Lee, felt like a sure bet for me but then the reviews trickled in. The film, as of this writing, is 30% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes and this is the kind of film where reviews matter to part of the demographic. Older males will likely go to Joker over this thanks to the reviews but I hear tracking is decently solid amongst younger males and African Americans. Gemini Man is booked at 3,600 theaters, 1,400 which will be in the high-frame 3D+ rate, a conceit that could actually be in its favor in terms of enticing moviegoers. The film costs $138 million to make which is pricey but not as pricey as much big-budget fare but this means Smith will have to flex his mighty muscle overseas in order to take on some of the heavy lifting. This past weekend, the film debuted in five offshore markets (France, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, and Israel), all at No. 1, for a combined gross of $7.6 million. This weekend the movie will open in 54 markets. I’m guessing Gemini Man opens with about $25-28 million for the weekend.
