They say all publicity is good publicity and this weekend’s release of Joker truly drives that fact home. The film can be viewed as future Oscar contender as well as the poster child of movies that some think could excite violence at screenings this weekend. From reports of beefed up security presence at various movie theaters and threats from the dark web of mass shootings that are being tracked by the FBI, Joker is at the center of a lot of controversies but that controversy will be one of the many factors that will push it a new October record at the box office.
It’s honestly a shame that Joaquin Phoenix’s portrayal that is being lauded by critics or the fact that a comic book film has been wowing the festival circuit, has been pushed aside for a more negative narrative as Joker prepares for its nationwide release. Joker first gained traction through two high-profile festivals: The Toronto International Film Festival and the Venice International Film Festival. Joker earned early raves at Venice, where it took home the Golden Lion, and those raves continued in Toronto. By the time those festivals wrapped, the film had an early fresh rating of 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and then slowly things began to change.
The Rotten Tomatoes score started to steadily drop as reviewers singled out the film’s depiction of realistic and gritty violence, with some dubbing it a reckless and irresponsible film in today’s day and age where some viewers are perceived to be easily influenced to imitate what they see on screen. The media perception took a major turn when families of the victims from The Dark Knight Rises mass shooting in Aurora, CO wrote a letter to Warner Bros. to express their fears and concerns over the film. Soon after, reports of threats tracked by the FBI of potential mass shootings at Joker screenings started to surface and this led to major theater chains going public with their plans to take security measures to ensure a safe environment for the moviegoing public this weekend. It is better to be safe than sorry but, in this humble guy’s opinion, I think the increased media attention has created a problem that wasn’t there, to begin with, and it has also put a lens on the fear that the media can create. Instead of being fully entertained by a potential game-changer for the genre, areas such as New York City ill see an increased police presence both in and out of uniform. That’s right, a significant undercover detachment will also be deployed to make sure nothing occurs inside cinemas in Manhattan, the Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn, and Staten Island. Similar tactics are also being taken in theaters across the greater Los Angeles area as well.
Oddly enough, a lot of the attention on Joker has only raised its profile and instead of scaring moviegoers away, it seems to have enticed them to see it anymore. Controversy like this can directly affect box office tracking but Joker has not shifted from its $80 million+ tracking standard and that’s why just about everyone thinks that Venom’s one year reign as the king of October openings ($80.2 million) is about to come to an end with the arrival of this film. Pre-sales are also very encouraging with the film beating the presales of IT Chapter Two, Us, and Venom on Atom Tickets. A part of it is because people are fans of the character and the DC brand, another part is seeing how Joaquin Phoenix stands up to the likes of Heath Ledger, who won a posthumous Academy Award for his work as the character in The Dark Knight, while others will just want to see if the media is simply blowing a lot of the film’s more gritty elements out of proportion. The latter isn’t something Warner Bros. necessarily wanted but it’s publicity that will certainly push the modestly budgeted ($64 million by some accounts) to record levels this weekend.
The Rotten Tomatoes score has dropped to 73% fresh, which is still good but it’s a good indication that it has polarized critics. Joker’s story starts here but I think it continues throughout awards season as it’s bound to be a contender, at most for Joaquin Phoenix’s work but many think it’s going to break ground in several other categories, including Best Picture. For those who complain about how “boring” awards season can be, have Joker to thank for keeping it interesting this year. When it’s all said and done this weekend, I think Joker is looking at about $85-90 million for the weekend.
