We have one more weekend of so-so box office before Avengers: Endgame comes and makes all the money so, in the meantime, studios are mostly shying away from releasing anything big this weekend and hoping that their mid-tier releases will entice moviegoers to get their butts in the seats.
The race for the top spot will be pretty close but either way, New Line will win because it will either see Shazam! spend a third weekend at number one or their horror feature, The Curse of Llorona, will surprise and take the winning position. I’m thinking Llorona, despite horror not exactly being family friendly over Easter, will be the one to beat this weekend.
The Curse of Llorona comes from the producers of The Conjuring and even though the movie isn’t directly part of The Conjuring universe (it does co-star Annabelle priest Father Perez [Tony Amendola] who comes to the aid of the film’s protagonist Anne Garcia [Linda Cardellini]), the movie comes with the stamp of producer James Wan, a brand unto himself at the box office for horror. In the film, Cardellini plays a social worker and widow raising her two children in 1970s Los Angeles, who is called to check in on one of her cases. She finds signs of foul play. As she digs deeper, she finds striking similarities between the case and the terrifying supernatural occurrences haunting her family. Enlisting the help of a local faith healer, she discovers that La Llorona has latched onto her and her children. La Llorona is a female ghost of Latin American heritage who lost her children and causes misfortune to those nearby. As Llorona searches for them, she takes other lost children, making them her own.
The movie is tracking well with Latinos, due to the connection of the ghost of the title who comes from Latin American heritage, and with young males as well. The reviews aren’t great (32% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) but The Nun was 26% and it still killed at the box office on opening weekend. Llorona won’t see the $53.8 million high of that film but $17-20 million is definitely a possibility before it’s likely quickly forgotten in the coming weeks.
Unless Llorona completely implodes, Shazam! should take second this weekend with about $16 million. There is a possibility it could surge more because it’s a solid family option for the weekend but I also think the comic book angle makes it slightly niche and that it will continue to perform more on that level rather than completely comforting family audiences.
Likely to take third is Breakthrough, which is getting a start at box office today to generate word of mouth heading into the weekend. Breakthrough marks Disney’s first official 20th Century Fox releases since their lucrative merger and is a faith-based release that could actually see some solid business due to the holiday. Breakthrough is based on the inspirational true story of one mother’s unfaltering love in the face of impossible odds. When Joyce Smith’s (Chrissy Metz) adopted son John falls through an icy Missouri lake, all hope seems lost. But as John lies lifeless, Joyce refuses to give up. Her steadfast belief inspires those around her to continue to pray for John’s recovery, even in the face of every case history and scientific prediction.
Faith-based films do perform well during this time period and Breakthrough is opening early to truly take advantage of Good Friday (falling on April 19) and Easter Sunday where it’s likely to be one of the biggest benefactors of decent box office for the day. As of now, it’s the best-reviewed film of the two wide releases at 68% fresh and there is no denying there is an audience for this kind of material. I’m predicting $14-18 million over five days.
Little should perform admirably in its second weekend as word of mouth is proving to be quite good. This is a film that also appeals to families while also catering to a bit of diversity at the movies. The film is definitely showing appeal beyond the African American demographic. I’m predicting about $11-12 million for weekend two.
