Frozen 2 is going to continue to dominate the box office over the 5-day Thanksgiving holiday but there is plenty of room left at the dinner table for our two other wide releases, Knives Out & Queen & Slim, which should also see solid business over the Turkey Day holiday.
Opening Frozen 2 ahead of the Thanksgiving frame was a really smart move by Disney. Films tend to nosedive the weekend after Thanksgiving before rebounding again in subsequent weekends but giving the film a head start allowed Disney to have the best possible outcome for any erosion that may happen once the holiday is over. Frozen 2 grossed $130.2 million over the weekend, allowing it to start well ahead of the first film’s opening weekend. That’s the best-animated film launch for the month of November and with 41% of K-12 schools out already ahead of the holiday, Frozen 2 is going to see some solid grosses before the weekend even approaches. The film grossed $12.7 million on Monday, the best ever Monday for November, besting the record set by Hunger Games: Catching Fire. This is the road Frozen 2 is on right now and it’s only going to get better heading into its second weekend.
Some think that Black Friday is a poor box office day but it’s not the case. Mixed in with all that shopping are trips to movies and since this is a family film, it’s going to be especially crowded out for moviegoers. The weakest day of the bunch will be Thanksgiving Day, which is typically how this all works while Wednesday and the rest of the weekend will be pretty strong. I’m thinking that Frozen 2 sees about $83-85 million in its second weekend.
The adults have something to look forward to as well. Knives Out finally arrives after making critical waves at the Toronto Film Festival which led to a solid 95% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The ensemble whodunnit, which stars Daniel Craig, Jamie Lee Curtis, Chris Evans, Christopher Plummer and pretty much all of Hollywood, is poised to put up some sizable numbers, thanks mostly to the $2 million it made from paid previews at only 936 locations last weekend. What’s notable about them is that most paid previews of late are boosted by Fandango, Atom Tickets or Amazon marketing. Knives Out was an organic push by major and regional exhibition partners. The $40 million film entered tracking with $25 million+ over the 5-day stretch but that has now surged to a possible $30 million 5-day start. I’m going with the high end of tracking and predict that Knives Out sees $30 million over its 5-day start.
Not to be underestimated is Queen & Slim, starring Daniel Kaluuya and Jodie Turner-Smith about a couple’s first date that’s thrown into disarray when a cop pulls them over. There is this sort of groundswell that seems to be surrounding Queen & Slim and I honestly think it’s poised to be one to watch this weekend. The $17 million film entered tracking at $10-12 million over five days but with reviews clocking it in at 85% fresh, I think that number is likely to increase. Box office comparisons, which are all three-day debuts, include Focus Features’ BlacKkKlansman ($10.8 million), 20th Century Fox’s Widows ($12.3 million opening), Lionsgate’s Acrimony ($17.1 million opening) and Universal’s Breaking In ($17.6 million opening). The African American audience does support its films, especially when the message of the film is significant. Queen & Slim is a dramatic hybrid of a date flick, social commentary & criminals on the run story so there is a lot of potential appeal hear depending on what you’re seeking. I’m calling for about $14-16 million over five days but I really wouldn’t be surprised if it surged higher.
