Predicting the box office is pretty hard this month after Terminator: Dark Fate & Doctor Sleep came in well below expectations for their opening weekends. Things should be a little easier to predict this weekend as awards contender and adult-skewing Ford v Ferrari should play while with its older male demo while Charlie’s Angels will either best expectations or crater out of the gate.
Ford v Ferrari has what Midway had on its side last weekend: the adult male audience seems to be very interested in the subject matter. The film, starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale, tells the story of American car designer Carroll Shelby and driver Ken Miles as they battle corporate interference, the laws of physics and their own personal demons to build a revolutionary race car for Ford and challenge Ferrari at the 25 Hours of Le Mans in 1966. The film has gained traction ahead of its release due to a positive reception at Telluride and the Toronto International Film Festival. The goodwill has continued with a screening at the London Film Festival and a premiere in Paris. The film also has some international appeal which alludes some dramas at the box office.
Unlike Midway, Ford v Ferrari actually has very stellar reviews which suggest that the opening will best that film’s $17.9 million start. As of this writing, the film is 91% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and this is the kind of project that can gain further box office potential when reviews call it a must-see. Box office comparisons have been made to other older, adult-skewing, male projects such as Bridge of Spies, Argo, and Sully. Bridge of Spies ($93.2 million final international unadjusted, $72.3 million domestic), Argo ($96.3M final overseas, $136 million stateside further boosted by an Oscar Best Picture win) & Sully ($115.7 million offshore total, $125 million domestic) show where this film could go, especially since, like those films, it’s being bolstered by the profile of its male leads. I’ve overestimated the box office the last two weeks but I’m going to call for an opening of about $25 million for the film.
Charlie’s Angels, directed, written and produced by Elizabeth Banks and starring Kristen Stewart, Aladdin‘s Naomi Scott and Ella Balinska, is the real headscratcher this weekend. On the one hand, it’s being catered to women which is a winning demo at the box office but it’s also aimed at the younger female demo, which can be very fickle until the very last minute at the box office. Tracking on the film is at $10-12 million which is pretty low for a brand such as this but that tracking is low because the film just hasn’t seemed to hit with the under 25 female crowd.
That’s not to say that it won’t be. Sometimes the demo decides on opening night if they’re going to throw their dollars out for a certain project and that will determine where Charlie’s Angels ends up. It’s hard to really make a box office comparison for the film against the first two films of the franchise because they were released during a very different time and weren’t tasked with completely rebranding what came before. The first two Charlie’s Angels movies, which starred Drew Barrymore, Cameron Diaz, and Lucy Liu and were directed by McG, opened to $40.1 million (2000’s Charlie’s Angels) and $37.6M (2003’s Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle), respectively. That’s not happening here but that doesn’t mean the opening can’t be decent.
Believe it or not, Charlie’s Angels is fresh at 65% as of this writing so that may convert those over who weren’t sure about the film. Also working in its favor is that the film cost about $48-50 million so there is a chance it could turn into a modest hit once domestic and international grosses are factored in. Offshore, the Angels will have a well-staggered rollout in Brazil, China, Korea, and Russia this weekend. After that, the movie takes a break, likely to make way for the all female-skewing Frozen 2 next weekend. Charlie’s Angels will continue releasing through the end of the year and into early 2020. I think the Angels could best tracking with an opening of about $15-17 million.
The even older crowd gets something at the bo office with The Good Liar, starring Helen Mirren & Ian McKellen. Reviews are decent at 61% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes (yep, Charlie’s Angels is getting better reviews) and the trailers seem to be enticing the over 60 crowd that is the target for the film. Films like Downton Abbey showed you can’t underestimate the older demo but I also don’t think there is enough buzz for a true breakout. It should open decently though with about $8 million.
