Dumbo entered the circus arena in Thursday previews last night and got off to an impressive start to kick off the weekend.
The latest Disney live-action adaptation scored $2.6 million in Thursday night previews. The figure is just fine on its own but let’s get the comparisons out of the way that may make some think the preview number is disappointing. Beauty and the Beast owns the record for the studio subgenre with a Thursday night preview at $16.3 million. Beast is a bigger Disney property than Dumbo so it wasn’t even expected to come close to that total.
Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland made $4.5 million in previews in March 2010, but those started at 12 AM. Dumbo’s Thursday night previews began at 6:00 PM. You might be thinking, Dumbo started earlier so that allows for more showings which should mean a bigger preview number. That’s simply not the case. 12 AM showings presented more of a rush factor in larger crowds to see the latest tentpole release and back in 2010, earlier preview showings were in their infancy. With earlier preview times, there isn’t a huge rush to see certain films right away, unless the Marvel logo is slapped across the screen. For Wonderland, the preview number only repped 11% of its opening-day $40.8 million Friday, on its way to a $116.1 million weekend. Burton’s previous movie for Fox, 2016’s Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, drew $1.2 million on its Thursday night.
Disney’s Cinderella made $2.3 million back in mid-March 2015, repping 10% of its $23 million Friday, and a $67.8 million three-day. This is probably the best comparison for Dumbo and although Cinderella is arguably a bigger brand than Dumbo, for general moviegoers they may be in the same wheelhouse when compared to some of their bigger titles.
If you want a more middle of the road comparison, Jungle Book bowed in the middle of April and earned $4.2 million in Thursday night previews, which was 13% of its $32 million Friday, for a massive $103.2 million opening weekend.
Needless to say, Dumbo could still go anywhere. I predicted $55-60 million while other predictions have it anywhere between $45-70 million. It really all depends on word of mouth throughout the weekend so we will have to see how this plays out.
