Despite early issues regarding character design that had to be changed, resulting in a new release date, Sonic The Hedgehog is poised for a very healthy 4-day opening weekend according to early tracking.
Paramount Pictures moved the $95 million film from November 8, 2019, to its current President’s Day opening weekend in order to fix VFX and Sonic’s teeth, which freaked the social media universe out in the film’s first trailer. When the new trailer was released, with the new redesign, the reaction was extremely positive and this changed the film’s financial prospects. Some reports indicate that the new release date may end up being more beneficial than its planned original launch.
Where is that launch headed? As of this morning, Sonic is tracking for an opening between $41-47 million for the 4-day weekend. Males under 25 seem to be the biggest consumers of this potential blockbuster while the new trailer has proven to be a big reason why insiders think this film will hit. The initial viral rate for the second Sonic trailer was high at 56:1 back in November, with YouTube views now near 28M, 18.6M of that was generated in the trailer’s first two days after posting.
Also entering tracking today is the Blumhouse remake of the television hit, Fantasy Island. The film is not really a straight remake and it puts a horror spin on the concept that has made it stand out ahead of its release. Fantasy Island enters tracking at $12-16 million for the 4-day launch but keep in mind the start of the 4-day launch is Valentine’s Day (the Friday) and horror films prove to do very well for date night on that day. The male under 25 crowd isn’t all on this one yet but the young female demo is starting to show interest. The film cost $7 million to make, the Blumhouse standard, so we may have a bit here no matter what.
Universal Pictures is also releasing the African American romance, The Photograph, that weekend and it enters tracking with about $10-14 million. The film stars Issa Rae and LaKeith Stanfield and it’s the only true romance film release of that weekend which could help its prospects as its release date draws closer.
