Box office tracking can be a solid indicator of where a film will land for the weekend but it has also been known to miss the mark on several occasions. A lot of films that are hard to peg tend to exceed where the industry thinks it will debut with last weekend’s The Meg being a more recent example. That film was tracking in the $20-25 million range and surprised with a debut of $45.4 million.
Crazy Rich Asians, the first Hollywood studio movie to feature an all-Westernized Asian cast in 25 years, is also poised to blow box office tracking out of the window. Crazy Rich Asians launches tomorrow and just a few weeks ago the film was tracking for a $20 million five day debut but that has gone up to $26 million this week. It’s clear that the industry doesn’t really know a barometer for this one because, sadly, there aren’t many comparisons that can be made here to gauge where the film is headed. The Joy Luck Club released 25 years ago and the last time a major studio released a film with an all-Westernized Asian cast, opened in limited release to the tune of $159,009 and $2 million when it opened wide. The film was a slow earner but ultimately grossed $32.9 million a $10.5 million budget. The Joy Luck Club was a drama while Crazy Rich Asians is a rom-com which makes its appeal much more universal.
Oddly enough, both films are based on popular books, which will also give Crazy Rich Asians an added assist. The book and film follow American Rachel Chu (Constance Wu) as she accompanies her longtime boyfriend Nick Young (Henry Golding) to his best friend’s wedding in Singapore. As Rachel visits Nick’s hometown for the first time, she quickly learns that her boyfriend is not only from one of the richest families in Asia, but also is one of its most eligible bachelors, putting a target on her back from jealous socialites as well as Nick’s formidable mother, Eleanor (Michelle Yeoh). Awkwafina, Ken Jeong, Gemma Chan and Jimmy O. Yang also star.
A factor that will allow the film to break out beyond the target audience and fans of the book is the fact that critics love the film. As of this writing, the film is fresh at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes. The consensus states “With a terrific cast and a surfeit of visual razzle-dazzle, Crazy Rich Asians takes a satisfying step forward for screen representation while deftly drawing inspiration from the classic — and still effective — rom-com formula. Needless to say, there is something for everyone here.
At this point, I think $26 million in five days is a bit of a conservative guess in terms of where the film will debut. There is something in the air that this could debut in a big way and, if audiences love it, there is great potential for solid legs based on word of mouth. I’m going to call $35 million in five days and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if it surged higher.
There are two other films that open Friday and they will see entirely different results. First, Mark Wahlberg reunites with director Peter Berg yet again for Mile 22 and it will likely see a decent opening but end up being one of Wahlberg’s more modest performers.
Mile 22 marks the fourth film Berg and Wahlberg have made together and tells the story of an elite CIA operative and his team who are tasked with escorting a high-value asset who is being targeted by terrorists. John Malkovich, Lauren Cohan, Iko Uwais, Ronda Rousey and CL co-star.
There aren’t any reviews as of this writing and with The Equalizer 2 fading and Mission: Impossible – Fallout heading into its fourth weekend, Mile 22 may offer an action alternative for the male demographic looking for something new. Reviews will play a role in its long-term prospects but I’m going to call about $16-18 million for the weekend.
The last new opener is Alpha, but I’d forgive you for not knowing it was coming out because the marketing has been pretty nonexistent. Set 20,000 years ago during the last ice age, the story centers on a young man who is injured and left for dead by his tribe while on a hunt. The young tribesman then finds and befriends a wolf, who has been abandoned by his pack, and the two team up to fight for survival. The film stars Kodi Smit-McPhee.
There aren’t any reviews as of this writing but I don’t expect critics to embrace this one and it should see a similar fate as The Darkest Minds from a couple of weekends ago. I’m calling $6-7 million for the weekend and then a quick banishment into obscurity.
Check back throughout the week as we post the daily box ofifce for Crazy Rich Asains and look out for the final results posted on Monday.
