Avengers: Infinity War began its preview international launch yesterday while it begins previews tonight beginning at 7 PM in the states. Everyone will be watching how the film performs this weekend but the real question is can this ultimate superhero mashup break the opening weekend set by Star Wars: The Force Awakens?
Some showtimes, such as at AMC Theatres where they’re holding an Infinity War fan event, are set to begin at 6 PM Thursday, while others will start at the standard 7 PM. Fandango has been reporting for quite some time that advance ticket sales are beating all previous superhero movies. If all these indicators are true, then Infinity War should feasibly beat the top Marvel Thursday night preview, Avengers: Age of Ultron‘s $27.6 million. Disney also owns the top Thursday night ever with Force Awakens ($57 million).
Adding to this, Infinity War is showing some of the best domestic tracking scores ever, with unaided awareness (the non-frequent moviegoer indicator) at 59% beating all previous box office champs like Force Awakens, Last Jedi, etc. The same is being said for first choice at 48% with definite interest at 72% only second to Avengers: Age of Ultron.
I think another factor that will give Infinity War a boost this weekend is Black Panther. That film tapped into an audience that may not have been interested in Marvel movies before it became the current highest grossing film of the year. The battle on Wakanda is featured heavily in the trailers and TV spots and considering how well that film as received, I think it has attracted even more awareness for Infinity War,
Infinity War moved its opening weekend a week to be able to open worldwide at the same time so it’s also set to possibly break some international records for opening weekend as well. The low-end for the global opening is about $472-498 million while the high end is $500 million. If it hits the low end, it would place number five on the all-time record and the high end would place it at number four. Some industry experts think it can surge over the high end but we’ll know more after Friday.
Ultimately the real focus will be on the domestic opening and currently, it’s tracking at $216-235 million. We all know tracking has underestimated several films in the past and I honestly think that will be the case here. Reviews are solid as of this writing with an 87% fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes and let’s face it, fans have been waiting ten years for this pivotal moment. I’m predicting about $250 million for the weekend, which would get it slightly over the edge to beat the Force Awakens which holds the record at $247 million.
