After debuting below expectations last weekend, Solo: A Star Wars Story needs to have a healthy weekend two in order to stay afloat. The summer box office is taking a break this weekend with three lower level releases opening so Solo will easily win the weekend but it’s bound to take a typical post-Memorial Day Weekend hit.
This weekend will go a long way to seeing where Solo will end up in the long run. Most movie see sizable slides after Memorial Day Weekend because the Sunday of that weekend plays like a Saturday & it inflates the grosses which makes the second weekend decline larger than normal. The same will happen to Solo but I’m having a hard time gaging the word of mouth on the film. It did receive an “A-” CinemaScore which means those who saw it, liked it but I don’t think it’s appealing to moviegoers who aren’t into the Star Wars brand. I’m going to call it $35 million for the weekend with a number one finish.
The first of our new releases is Adrift, starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin. The film is about a pair of lovers who sail head on into a catastrophic hurricane. She awakens to find her beau badly injured and their boat in ruins. The film is currently 73% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes which bodes well for the movie as it’s likely to attract young female moviegoers looking for a love story about survival & romance. I think it will have a decent opening of $13 million.
Up next is the latest from Johnny Knoxville, Action Point. The film follows Knoxville as a ragtag owner of a depressed and dangerous amusement park whose existence is threatened when a corporate mega park opens nearby. I’m just happy this is coming out now because I’m over seeing the trailers. There is no denying there is a fanbase for this so I’m calling a $10 million opening & then a quick exit from theaters.
Our last release is actually the best reviewed movie of the weekend, Upgrade. The film comes from BHTilt & is directed by Leigh Whannell of Saw fame. The film has an 85% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes but this is a film destined for cult status and not big box office. I give BHTilt credit for giving it a summer release & really think it will find a bigger audience down the line. I’m calling an opening of $4 million but if the rumors are true that the Halloween trailer is attached to this, I’m bumping it to $5 million.
Check back on Monday for the full box office results.
