Memorial Day weekend will usher in a new box office champion in Aladdin but the question is: Will Aladdin overcome middle of the road reviews to truly ignite the box office and break the Memorial Day weekend Disney curse?
Disney is bold for continuing to use Memorial Day weekend as a potential launching pad for their tentpole released. The Mouse House had success with it once when Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End opened 12 years ago to $139.8 million, a record that is still held for the 4-day weekend. Disney has tried to replicate this success since and has really come up empty. A string of disasters have come and gone over this weekend including 2010’s Prince of Persia, ($37.8 million 4-day), 2015’s Tomorrowland ($42.6 million), 2016’s Alice Through the Looking Glass ($33.5 million), 2017’s tired Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales ($78.4 million) and last year’s Solo A Star Wars: Story ($103 million). The latter two may seem like winners but they were actually expected to open much higher than where they landed.
So what could make Aladdin a winner this weekend and not like the rest of the Memorial Day weekend Disney clunkers? The brand is pretty strong and the 1992 animated film is loved by parents and children in the same way that made the live-action Beauty and the Beast a hit when it was released. One might point to the subpar opening of the live-action Dumbo back in March but that property lacks the universal appeal that Aladdin has going for it. Thanks to parents sharing the film with their kids and a successful run on Broadway, Aladdin definitely speaks to more moviegoers.
There were a few outliers that could’ve worked against it and I think they are mostly taken care of. Many people were turned off by initial trailers, especially the look of Will Smith’s Genie and there seemed to be a bit of negativity looming. Now that reviews are out, it appears that things aren’t as bad as they seem. The movie is 61% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing which is pretty middle of the road. Since most were expecting a bit more of scathing reception, middle of the road reviews should aide in pushing the box office a bit. Even the reviews that are negative don’t trash the film, they even call parts of it entertaining but point out that it feels “unnecessary.”
Aladdin cost $183 million to make which is quite steep but the film should have worldwide appeal that is likely to make this one a hit. Aladdin hits all offshore markets this weekend, save Japan, with industry sources eyeing a $100M—$120M overseas start. I’m guessing that Aladdin has a North American start of about $80 million for the 4-day weekend.
Sony is bringing us a blend of comic book superhero story and horror with the release of Brightburn. The film, produced by James Gunn, currently holds a 63% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and it definitely has the potential to do moderate business due to a solid marketing campaign and moviegoers’ interest in seeing something different. Sony must feel confident in the film because it was originally slated for last November but they moved it into the summer crowd so it could catch on more. I’m calling about $13 million for the weekend and life as a potential cult-classic in the future.
John Wick: Chapter 3 should easily take second place this weekend and will clear $100 million by Memorial Day, making it the highest grossing film of the franchise in just two weeks. The previous high was Chapter 2, which tapped out at $92 million. I’m calling about $35-38 million over the 4-day weekend.
The critically acclaimed Booksmart is also opening this weekend and is hoping to turn great reviews into box office traction. The film is 99% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing and critics are very high on the film from actress Olivia Wilde, making her directorial debut here. The film stars Bernie Feldstein and Kaitlyn Dever as two academic superstars who on the eve of their graduation realize they should have worked less and played more. Because of this, the girls try to cram four years of fun into one night. I’m not expecting a huge opening but word of mouth may make this film one to watch in the coming weeks. I’m calling about $7-8 million this weekend.
