It’s about to be a “whole new world” the Disney Aladdin brand as the live-action version hits screens over Memorial Day weekend. The film has seen its share of online criticism, mostly with the look of Will Smith’s Genie, but according to early box office tracking, Aladdin should have a potent debut when it opens.
Aladdin enters box office tracking at $70-90 million over the four day holiday period. The film is strong with all quads, but best with females under 25. An opening in the $70-$90 million range is north of Cinderella territory ($67.8 million opening) and Maleficent ($69.4 million), but lower than Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland ($116.1 million). Disney is also coming off the lower than expected debut of the live-action Dumbo which only saw a $45.9 million opening. The Aladdin brand is much stronger and recognizable amongst audiences so Aladdin should be in the clear on getting over that gross. There are some roadblocks in play though…
Aladdin will need good reviews and a lot of its success will be based on that. At CinemaCon, there were a number of rivals and attendees hating on the film and the footage that was shown. Sometimes it’s hard to overcome early internet scorn and Aladdin is facing an uphill battle that can only be helped if the film is actually good.
The Memorial Day weekend has been a Disney staple for a while and it’s been hit or miss for the mouse house in terms of financial return. They still own the holiday’s 4-day record with $139.8 million from 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End but the studio continues to have a bad streak over the holiday with films underperforming (2017 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Tell No Tales at $78.4 million) or flat out tanking (Solo: A Star Wars Story, Tomorrowland, Alice Through the Looking Glass, and Prince of Persia). If Aladdin underperforms, all eyes will be on the live-action take of The Lion King to save the day in July.
The original 1992 film which starred Robin Williams as the voice of the genie was part of Disney’s animation renaissance under Jeffrey Katzenberg (which started with 1989’s The Little Mermaid) and made a stunning $504 million around the globe at the time.
