Sam Mendes’ World War I epic drama, 1917, was a bit of a surprise winner at the Golden Globes last Sunday, taking home Best Director for Mendes and Best Picture – Drama. The film has been playing in 11 locations since Christmas Day but this weekend it goes wide and the Golden Globes love will only make it that more poignant at the box office.
Advance ticket sales already saw a boost a day after the Globes aired. Fandango reports a boost in advance sales the morning after the telecast for 1917, selling five times more tickets than the film did a week ago for the Sunday-Monday overnight. 1917 is expected to play older and more Caucasian but there is very good potential here for the war film to find a broader audience here thanks to the Globes. 1917 revolves around two British soldiers who must cross German enemy lines. Mendes with DP Roger Deakins created a movie that takes place in one continuous shot. The film, which was screened for awards voters before Thanksgiving, is certified 89% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with an A CinemaScore.
1917 is likely to show some great legs moving forward, especially with Oscar nominations coming out on Monday. The film is expected to earn nominations in key categories with Best Director and Best Picture a significant possibility. This is also an older skewing film and we have seen time and time again that the demo will come out if the project is worthy of their time. 1917 appears to be something that is worthy of their time so I’m predicting an opening of about $25-30 million.
Appealing to the female demo is the new Tiffany Haddish-Rose Byrne led comedy, Like A Boss. Reviews aren’t on its side (22% on Rotten Tomatoes) but Paramount Pictures has wisely promoted the film as a ladies night event and it appears to be paying off (Thursday night preview audiences reported seeing several sold out shows). Sometimes reviews don’t matter and this may be the case here. The social media response is very positive so far and, much like the older demo, you can’t underestimate the female demo when it comes to films that cater to their desire for a girl’s night out. I’m predicting about $13-15 million but I wouldn’t be surprised if it broke out more.
Just Mercy goes wide this weekend after a successful limited run that began on Christmas Day. The critically acclaimed drama, which stars Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Foxx and Brie Larson, is tracking very well African Americans and women but the question is whether it can turn its 79% fresh rating into box office gold without the Oscar buzz it seems to really want for itself. The film got lost in the shuffle in that regard, plus it’s a very crowded field. Jamie Foxx earned a surprise SAG nomination for Best Supporting Actor for his role but that has really been the only award’s notice for the film. It’s possible the Oscars shines a light on it come Monday, maybe for Foxx once again, but we’ll have to wait and see. Working in its favor is that the film earned an “A+” CinemaScore which bodes well for word of mouth as it expands. I’m predicting about $8-10 million for the weekend with potential for strong legs moving forward.
Likely to waterlogged this weekend is Underwater, starring Kristen Stewart. The deep-sea monster feature which is essentially Alien beneath the sea, doesn’t have the buzz necessary to really register this weekend unfortunately. I saw the film last night and it’s a breezy 95 minutes that is competently directed but it lacks originality so moviegoers may get a been there, done that, vibe from it. I expected reviews to be horrid but critics are mostly split at 49% on Rotten Tomatoes. I’m predicting maybe $6.5-7 million for the weekend as it gets lost during a pretty crowded weekend in January.
