The July 4th holiday weekend frame should be mostly impressive as new films come into an already crowded box office environment.
Universal Pictures is looking to rebound from The Mummy debacle with Despicable Me 3, which should easily happen as the franchise has been a huge cash cow for the studio. To date through two sequels and a Minions spinoff, the Despicable Me franchise has amassed $2.69 billion worldwide.
Summer has been very tricky this year as big titles that should’ve hit big have seriously underperformed at the box office but the Despicable franchise seems pretty reliable and it appeals to kids and adults alike. The film is on the lower end of the fresh scale on Rotten Tomatoes (67% as of this writing) but this also appears to be a franchise that is review proof. Minions didn’t earn critical raves but it still made a killing at the box office. The film’s budget is said to be under $80 million which means it will be on its way to a profit after opening weekend. I’m predicting $90-95 million for the weekend and a number one finish.
The new opener that I will be paying close attention to is Baby Driver, which opened to Tuesday night previews with an impressive $2.1 million ahead of its wide opening yesterday. This is a rare summer film that is purely original and fresh (not a sequel, reboot, or rehash of any kind) and that seems to be working with critics which bestowed it with a 98% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing.
A lot of studios are afraid to release original fare like this in the heat of the summer box office because sometimes audiences reject original ideas for something more familiar. I’m thinking this film will be a bright spot that breaks that trend and gives us a little faith that, if the film is good, original ideas can get people in the seats. The film is tracking in the low teens over five days but I’m going out on a limb and predicting that the film will gross $25-30 million over five days and could go higher if word of mouth really takes off.
Our third new release is a bit of a toss up. The House stars Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler and follows a suburban married couple who, in effort to raise college funds for their daughter, take part in an underground neighborhood casino. I haven’t heard many reviews on this one yet which is usually a bad sign if the studio hold off until the last minute releasing them. The promotion hasn’t been that strong either for a summer release but since Rough Night was a miss with audiences for laughs, maybe this duo can bring them in a bit. I don’t think it’s going to break out huge but it won’t be a total disaster either. Look for about $12-15 million for the weekend.
July 4th tends to be the lowest grossing day of the holiday weekend since most people are out and about at BBQ’s or watching fireworks instead of seeing movies but expect a lot of these releases to see decent bumps the day before. It’s going to be an interesting weekend to watch so check back on Monday when we post the preliminary box office estimates!
