Reel Box Office Predictions: Sep 15-17

It should continue to float atop this weekend’s box office but two new arrivals, along with the massive horror hit, should ensure that September will continue to redeem the lackluster month of August.

Even though It will take the top spot, lets talk about where the newcomers stand. First we have mother!, from director Darren Aronofsky. The film has received mostly positive reviews (77% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) and those who liked it, really liked it. The film hopes to attract audiences through star power, namely in the form of Jennifer Lawrence and Javier Bardem. Director Darren Aronofsky himself could be an attraction among his fans and some casual audiences that enjoyed his Oscar-winner Black Swan in 2010.

The biggest disadvantage for mother!, obviously, will be facing the box office monster IT‘s second weekend. The studio’s release timing for mother! has always been a head-scratcher given the close proximity to the Stephen King adaptation, but given the latter’s massive over-performance, mother! faces an even tougher challenge now. Twitter and Facebook activity are far behind that of Crimson Peak and House at the End of the Street, the latter of which similarly starred Lawrence in a fall-time thriller that opened to $12.3 million on this same weekend in 2012. The promotional material is also an issue. For some (like me) the trailers are intriguing and make me want to see it while I have heard many others say “so, what is this even about?” It’s not exactly mainstream fare but curious moviegoers could be interested enough to give it a shot, at least on opening weekend. I’m predicting an opening in the $15-18 million range.

Up next is American Assassin and this one could go either way. The film boasts three key advantages: an existing fan base from the popular novel series, Dylan O’Brien’s young female fan base, and Michael Keaton’s career resurgence that should make him a key attraction among older male audiences. Twitter activity in recent days has been comparable to that of John Wick at the same point before release, while day-to-day Facebook growth has approached the comparable pre-release levels of The Accountant.

The film will likely do best in middle America, but will struggle to find appeal among O’Brien’s key female audience due to the R-rated, male-leaning, action/thriller genre. The fact that it isn’t trending further ahead of films like John Wick on Twitter despite being an existing property with three years’ worth of user base growth to cull from is a somewhat concerning sign for this weekend’s prospects, and next week’s Kingsman sequel release could keep much of the male audience at home this weekend. Meanwhile, critical reception is underwhelming early on with a 41% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Also, and this could just be me, I feel like there weren’t a lot of TV spots promoting the film until the last week or so. Seems like this one needed a bit more of push to really become the franchise it is hoping to establish. That being said, we haven’t had a solid action offering in awhile and this could be the appetizer moviergoers need before heading to Kingsman next weekend. I think it could pull slightly ahead of mother! with about $19-20 million for the weekend.

And what of It? The film has seen solid weekday numbers (with it boasting the highest Monday and Tuesday grosses for the month of September ever) and it’s very likely to hit the $200 million mark by the end of the weekend. I can see it dropping the standard 50% for horror and that would put it at about $66.2 million for the weekend. Oddly enough, this number would put it in line with the tracking it was posting for its opening weekend which is a testament to how big the film has become.

Check back on Monday for the final box office results!


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About Gaius Bolling 3795 Articles
At the age of five, I knew I wanted to write movies and about them. I've set out to make those dreams come true. As an alumni of the Los Angeles Film Academy, I participated in their Screenwriting program, while building up my expertise in film criticism. I write reviews that relate to the average moviegoer by educating my readers and keeping it fun. My job is to let you know the good, the bad, and the ugly in the world of cinema, so you can have your best moviegoing experience. You can find more of my writing on Instagram @g_reelz.