Reel Box Office Predictions: Oct 27-29

As October box office wraps up and Halloween approaches, a horror film will undoubtedly top the box office this weekend.

Jigsaw is the eighth installment in Lionsgate’s beloved Saw horror series that through seven movies have made close to $1 billion. The first installment was directed and co-storied by James Wan, and in the sequel, there’s a Jigsaw killer who is wrecking havoc again. Is it ghost? Is killer John Kramer back from the dead? Or is it copycat killer? Twisted Pictures is a co-producer The film was directed by Michael and Peter Spierig and Wan executive produces.

The weekend that falls or borders near Halloween is typically a downer for all other films, except for horror, which has a history of rallying. In regard to pure horror movies that opened during the final frame of October, Lionsgate’s 2006 Saw 3 is tops with $33.6M. The last Saw movie was seven years ago at this time, Saw 3D, and it opened to $22.5M and legged out to $45.7M, a 2x multiple. Previews for Jigsaw start at 7 PM on Thursday. Jigsaw will also play in Imax.

There has been enough time between films that there should be some interest for fans to revisit the franchise. Reviews aren’t out as of yet but even if critics rip it apart, it will be virtually review proof since horror fans tend to ignore top critics when  it comes to films like this. It won’t hit the heights of its earlier sequels but I predict an opening in the $20-24 million range.

Boo 2! has been leading at the daily box office so far this week, clearing $1M on Monday and $1.5M on Tuesday with a five-day total of $23.85M. It will be interesting to see if the Perry sequel plays beyond the Halloween period. Last year, Boo! A Madea Halloween amazingly made 25% of its $73.2M domestic box office or $18.7M after the holiday was over. It should hold ok this weekend with about $11 million

Paramount has the George Clooney-directed crime drama Suburbicon starring Matt Damon as Gardner Lodge, a mild-mannered father and husband in 1959. A home invasion happens and Gardner’s world of manicured lawns and a stellar home is turned upside down. Julianne Moore and Oscar Isaac co-star. The movie was co-written by Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Joel and Ethan Coen. The film premiered at the Venice and Toronto film festivals and has fallen victim to not so great reviews (currently 32% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing). This is a film that is geared towards people who pay attention to reviews so that could hurt the film in the end. I’m predicting about $8 million for the weekend.

Lastly, via Universal, DreamWorks Pictures has American Sniper scribe Jason Hall’s directorial debut Thank You For Your Service in 2,054 locations. Steven Spielberg originally gave the novel about U.S. Iraq war soldiers with PTSD to Hall to adapt. Spielberg was considering directing with Daniel Day-Lewis starring; however, the project turned into a directing opportunity for Hall. Universal supported Thank You for Your Service through multiple activations, including a two-week tour to Washington D.C., Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, St. Louis, Denver and Phoenix with screenings and Q&A sessions with talent and filmmakers attended by veterans, active duty military and Veterans service organizations. Nearly 200 screenings were held for members of the military community, and DreamWorks, Universal and AMC have teamed to offer U.S. veterans and active-duty service members free tickets at more than 400 AMC locations nationwide tomorrow. The film is getting decent reviews (73% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing) but awareness isn’t high enough for the film. Much like Only The Brave last week, which had stellar reviews, there just isn’t enough traction for it to breakout. I predict about $5-6 million for the weekend.

Check back on Monday for the final box office results!


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About Gaius Bolling 3795 Articles
At the age of five, I knew I wanted to write movies and about them. I've set out to make those dreams come true. As an alumni of the Los Angeles Film Academy, I participated in their Screenwriting program, while building up my expertise in film criticism. I write reviews that relate to the average moviegoer by educating my readers and keeping it fun. My job is to let you know the good, the bad, and the ugly in the world of cinema, so you can have your best moviegoing experience. You can find more of my writing on Instagram @g_reelz.