After we had a weak contender take on Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 with King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Alien: Covenant looks to take the top spot but the question is how close will the race be for first place?
I’m expecting Alien: Covenant to pull out the win here but how well it does over the whole weekend will be based purely on word of mouth. Prometheus made $51 million when it opened in June 2012 in the second slot behind Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted but it suffered hefty declines in subsequent weeks due to the polarizing reaction to the film.
The reception should be a bit better here because it seems to be a return to form for director Ridley Scott. The early word is that this is more of an Alien film than Prometheus and this, the sixth installment in the Alien franchise (excluding the two Alien vs. Predator films), has been generally celebrated by critics, who are responsible for its 78% “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. Tracking has it coming in at the $40-45 million range but I think it could pull $45-50 million if moviegoers truly respond to it.
Also opening, although I had no idea until today, is Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul which, it’s safe to say, targets a different audience than Alien. The fourth live-action movie based on Jeff Kinney’s middle school-centric book series is expecting a $10 million gross this weekend which is a testament to how popular the books are with kids. The first three installments opened annually in succession between 2010 and 2012, each grossing slightly less than the last, and earning an average of $55 million domestically. David Bowers, who directed movies two and three, returns to the director’s chair, anointing a new titular wimp in Jason Drucker (Zachary Gordon, it seems, has outgrown the role).
As for Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2, it will be an easy second place finish for the film with a gross between $30-35 million which will add nicely to its worldwide tally which is north of $600 million.
Check back here on Monday for the final box office results!
