It has finally arrived! Justice League is assembling its team this weekend and everyone is wondering how well the film will perform considering the mixed response the DCEU releases have received in the past.
Let’s start with the good news: Justice League is expected to have a huge global debut. While domestic response could be all over the place, this big studio effort is one that thrives overseas and there is no sign to indicate that it will underperform on that level. Also propelling its global launch is its debut in 4,040 stateside locations and a day-and-date global launch that includes China, which proves to be a big player for films like this. The question is, of its huge global opening, how much of it will come from the domestic side?
The road for the DCEU has been a bit of a rough one. It began with Man of Steel in 2013 which grossed $668 million worldwide on a $225 million budget but only $291 million of that came from domestic grosses. That means it relied on foreign box office to break even. Most say a film needs to make 3x its production budget to do that so that means it definitely didn’t achieve this domestically and just made it after worldwide box office was factored in. Adding to this, the film received mixed reviews with a 55% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
Up next was Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice in 2016. That film carried a budget between $275-300 million and while it broke records opening weekend ($166 million debut) it suffered from poor word of mouth and collapsed 68.4% in weekend two. When it was all said and done the film grossed $330.4 million domestically and $873.3 million worldwide. That means it barely covered its production budget domestically and was once again bailed out by overseas grosses. There are some that say marketing costs were also through the roof so the worldwide total simply wasn’t sufficient enough to cover the film’s costs. This film also fared horribly with critics who rewarded it with a dismal 27% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
If we skip over 2016’s Suicide Squad which has a tangible connection to the universe (the film was poorly received by critics but became known as the film that bailed out the month of August at the box office last year) we get to this summer’s bright spot from the DCEU, Wonder Woman. I don’t believe they exactly knew what they had but it bucked the downward trend by being well received by critics (with its 92% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes it’s one of the best-reviewed films of the year) and it was well received by audiences, becoming the highest grossing film of the summer domestically with a gross of $412.6 million. The film grossed $821.8 million worldwide and did so carrying a $149 million budget. It’s gross was made more impressive because it started lower than Batman v. Superman with a $103.8 million opening which means positive word of mouth carried it to stellar results.
Warner Bros. is hoping that the glow from Wonder Woman will carry over to Justice League and I think some of it will, at least opening weekend. Had that film been poor, I think many would’ve been more worried about its opening weekend performance. For all those who loved Wonder Woman, they will want to see how she carries on in this film.
Working against it is that reviews have ranged from mixed to abysmal. While Gal Gadot is getting positive notices once again for her Wonder Woman portrayal (with other new characters also getting kudos) it would appear that the DCEU is back to its troubled beginnings. The Rotten Tomatoes score is being withheld until opening day (reportedly because Rotten Tomatoes wants it revealed on their Facebook show See It/Skip It) but that hasn’t stopped it from leaking allegedly (yesterday it was resting at a low 48% according to the leak).
I’m predicting that the film sees a $120 million opening but its long-term prospects seem questionable. Still, its global haul could go as high as $325-350 million this weekend so it will have something to celebrate as I’m sure many will be dissecting every bit of its performance.
Check back Monday for the final box office results!
