Reel Box Office Predictions: January 5-7

We’re now in a new box office year and while the first week of it will be ruled by mostly holdovers from 2017, one new rookie player will make a solid impression.

Once upon a time, the month of January was a box office dead zone. Studios would use this month to dump their lackluster films from their roster and simply hope for the best. This all changed 13 years ago when January became the new launch pad for low budget horror films with the release of White Noise. That film opened to a surprising $24.1 million and became a surprise hit. Since that launch, we have seen other films debut to similar or even bigger success. The following year we had Hostel ruling the box office with a $19.6 million start and this became further proof that January isn’t a bad month for horror films since the marketplace isn’t crowded and the budgets are so low that they basically clear their productions budgets after one weekend. Hell, even horror films that get an “F” CinemaScore can succeed (that culprit is 2012’s The Devil Inside which opened to a robust $33.7 million).

Last year the critically derailed The Bye Bye Man was able to pull off a decent $13.5 million opening so there is no reason why Insidious: The Last Key won’t find even bigger success. The fourth film in the popular horror franchise carries a PG-13 rating which means it will hit it big with teens and young girls. The Insidious series has been a solid earner since it made its debut in 2011. The first film was a surprise hit when it opened to $13.2 million and finished with a solid gross of $54 million. The sequel benefitted from a Friday the 13th debut in 2013 and saw its opening surge to $40 million with an $83.5 million finish. The third chapter, which was a prequel, also did solid business with a $22.6 million start and a $52.2 million finish. The franchise has earned a solid $372 million worldwide which is why the studio keeps cranking these films out. Insidious won’t finish in first place but a $20-22 million start will be good enough for third.

The gap between Star Wars: The Last Jedi & Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle keeps getting smaller, with the latter outgrossing the former on New Years Day and Tuesday this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jumanji pulled out slightly ahead of Star Wars this weekend but it’s going to be a pretty close one to call. Each film should do anywhere between $25-27 million with mere thousands separating the weekend champ.

The most significant holdovers that remain from the holiday rush are The Greatest Showman and Pitch Perfect 3. The Greatest Showman should continue to ride its good word of mouth to a solid weekend of $10-13 million while Pitch Perfect 3 may see a steeper decline to about $7-9 million.

Also in play is the expansion of Molly’s Game. The reviews have been solid and the film has performed decently since its limited launch on Christmas Day. The film goes from 271 locations to 1,500 which could result in a $7 million opening.

All of these films will continue to get a little boost with the MLK four day holiday occurring next week, which is the unofficial end of the holiday season. These next two weekends will go a long way to seeing how some of these final grosses will play out.

Check back on Monday when the final box office numbers are released!


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About Gaius Bolling 3795 Articles
At the age of five, I knew I wanted to write movies and about them. I've set out to make those dreams come true. As an alumni of the Los Angeles Film Academy, I participated in their Screenwriting program, while building up my expertise in film criticism. I write reviews that relate to the average moviegoer by educating my readers and keeping it fun. My job is to let you know the good, the bad, and the ugly in the world of cinema, so you can have your best moviegoing experience. You can find more of my writing on Instagram @g_reelz.