The only major new release this weekend is Transformers: The Last Knight and while it will post an easy number one finish, it will continue this summer’s trend of big studio releases coming in below expectations.
This is the fifth film in the Michael Bay franchise and reviews have never been kind. The current film is rotten at 18% as of this writing but that hasn’t really been an issue for its overall box office. Previously, Transformers: Age Of Extinction, the last movie, started previews on Thursday night three years ago grossing $8.75 million from late-night showings starting at 9 PM on 2,990 screens. Paramount went on to report that pic’s opening weekend at $100 million. Internally, Paramount is comping Last Knight to Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, which earned $5.5 million on its preview night, then $23.6 million on its first day before a $63 million weekend (however, that was the three-day over Memorial Day).
Transformers: The Last Knight drew $5.5 million in previews Tuesday night from an overall count of 3,000 locations. The Michael Bay-directed fifthquel opens today in 4,069 locations. It is being reported from early estimates that it looks like the film will open to $15 million today (Wednesday) which would give it the lowest start of the franchise. When compared to the other titles, it’s behind 2009’s Revenge of the Fallen ($62 million), 2014’s Age of Extinction ($41.9 million), 2011’s Dark of the Moon ($37.7 million) and the first 2007 movie ($27.9 million).
While the franchise may seem out of gas here, it’s still a huge international player and it should come in huge on the international front. Age Of Extinction and 2011’s Dark Of The Moon cleared $1.1 billion and $1.12 billion at the global box office, respectively, and the trick for Paramount is getting Last Knight to that same result. I honestly think it will come close or match that worldwide number since the franchise hasn’t seemed to slow down overseas.
As for its opening weekend in the states, I’m predicting about $63 million over five days which gives us another alright but mostly meh weekend at the summer box office.
