Reel Box Office Predictions: Sep 22-24

Having already grossed $446.6 million, the month of September could come close to hitting $700 million in the next 10 days, easily an all-time high for the first month of autumn thanks to New Line/Warner Bros’ It, 20th Century Fox’s Kingsman: Golden Circle and Warner Bros.’ The Lego Ninjago movie.

To date, September is running 17% ahead of the same 18-day period last year, and will easily eclipse 2015’s record $616.4 million for the month (when Sony’s Hotel Transylvania 2 led all titles). Another September victory for this weekend? It will be the first time that at least 3 titles will clear $25 million for the weekend. This is basically what August should’ve looked like.

Pennywise and the kids from It will likely be dethroned by the Matthew Vaughn directed sequel, Kingsman: The Golden Circle. The sequel to the 2015 title follows the British spy org to the U.S. after its HQ is destroyed; here they team with the Yank associates to fight an evil Julianne Moore and her Golden Circle gang. The first movie was a Valentine’s Day sleeper which opened to $36.2M and legged out a 3.5 multiple to $128.3 million. New pic stars Colin Firth, Taron Egerton, Mark Strong and welcomes Jeff Bridges, Halle Berry, Channing Tatum and Moore. The film is shaping up to be a four-quad movie with strong male interest and rising under 25 female interest thanks to Tatum.

Hype on this one has increased the last few weeks but reviews as of now are split down the middle with a 55% rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing. The original came in fresh with 74%. The plus side is that the bad reviews aren’t totally scathing and suggest that it’s a little overlong and that its over the top action wears thin after awhile. The cast is receiving good notices and I honestly think fan interest is high enough to thwart any of the negative reviews. With a budget of $104 million and a release on some large format and Imax screens, this sequel could prove to be quite profitable as it also has a significant interest on the international front (the original picked up an extra $286 million overseas). I’m calling an opening in the $50 million range, plus a first place finish.

The Lego Ninjago Movie is a safe bet for second as the kids have been a bit overlooked at the box office as of yet. Ninjago was directed by Charlie Bean, Paul Fisher and Bob Logan and is based on the toy brick’s famed ninja line. Pic follows six young ninjas who must defend their island home of Ninjago. By day, they battle the other enemy: High school. The Lego Batman Movie opened to $53 million back in February and ended its run at $175.8 million.

As of this writing, the film has a 72% fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and will obviously be the top choice for kids this weekend as they’ve probably had their fill of sneaking in to see It. Despite me not seeing many previews for this film, I hear the interest is high among the target audience so I’m predicting a $35 million opening for the latest Lego effort.

Despite falling to third, It should continue to bring in some impressive grosses as well. It’s already the highest grossing horror film of all time (surpassing The Exorcist) and now it’s just a march towards $300 million, which seemed like a pipe dream for horror only a few weeks ago. It should gross about $30 million in weekend three.

Check back on Monday for the full box office results!


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About Gaius Bolling 3795 Articles
At the age of five, I knew I wanted to write movies and about them. I've set out to make those dreams come true. As an alumni of the Los Angeles Film Academy, I participated in their Screenwriting program, while building up my expertise in film criticism. I write reviews that relate to the average moviegoer by educating my readers and keeping it fun. My job is to let you know the good, the bad, and the ugly in the world of cinema, so you can have your best moviegoing experience. You can find more of my writing on Instagram @g_reelz.