Marvel will continue to dominate the start of the summer movie season as Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2 is set to repeat at number one this weekend.
For the ninth time out of the last 11 years, a Marvel superhero movie will feasibly dominate the second weekend of the summer box office and given that word of mouth has been positive and midweek business has been solid, I expect a hold on the higher end of the spectrum for the superhero film. I’m predicting about $70 million for weekend two which will be close to Captain America: Civil War‘s $72.6M second weekend a year ago.
We have two newcomers opening this weekend and while one will be do decent business because it’s appealing to the female demo, the other other may be DOA due to its hefty production budget.
King Arthur: Legend of the Sword will open higher of the two but that’s where the good news for the film stops. In earnest, Warner Bros. jumped King Arthur around the calendar four times, trying to get the best date: First the Guy Ritchie-directed movie was dated on July 22 of last year, then Feb. 17 of this year. It was moved during those times due to the fact that the film wasn’t ready. King Arthur landed on March 24 but in December, WB relocated it away to this Friday in order to flee from Sony/Skydance’s Life. That movie for a second looked promising but it ended up fizzling out quickly.
Also not working in its favor is a huge budget of $175 million (before marketing costs) which it won’t recoup in the states. The film does open in 51 overseas markets, including China, which should ease the pain but the performance in the states won’t be strong enough to compensate for what should be a stronger showing overseas. I’m predicting about $25 million for the weekend before it’s considered one of the biggest flops of the year.
Snatched, starring Amy Schumer & Goldie Hawn, should fare better as a solid alternative for the female audience looking for a quick laugh. As of now the film is 41% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes but it should get a solid push on Sunday since Mother’s Day falls on that day and the film has heavily marketed the mother/daughter angle. The film has a $42 million budget which it should have no problem matching or exceeding in the long run. I predict an opening in the $18-20 million range.
Check back on Monday for the final box office results!
