If you’re feeling like the summer movie box office is ending, you’re probably right. There are 3 new offerings this weekend and while they should put up respectable numbers relative to their budgets, don’t expect any records to be broken.
The film with the biggest chance of breaking out is The Dark Tower, which is based on a series of Stephen King books. The film has been in development for years & the road to the big screen has been a rough one. Rumors of post production problems & poor test screenings have plagued the release & with moviegoers being more savy with social media, news like this becomes harder & harder to hide.
Reviews haven’t hit the web yet as of this writing (they’re expected to trickle in starting Wednesday night) but that makes the window of reading them & seeing the movie pretty small. This works for & against a film like this. It’s usually a bad sign when reviews are held so long before a films release but it also doesn’t allow a lot of time to let reviews (good or bad) sink in before you decide you’re going to see a film.
The film has a modest $60 million budget (although reshoots & marketing cost could make this higher) and it should open ok but word of mouth will be the deciding factor in the long run. I’m predicting about $20-25 million for the weekend.
Up next is counter programming of the best kind in the form of Detroit, the critically praised drama that may get some awards attention later in the year. The film, directed by Oscar winner Kathryn Bigelow, has a fresh rating of 96% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing & while it may seem like a downer movie for the summer, adult audiences may make it a substantial player in the long run. I predict about $13 million for the weekend.
Our last new release is Kidnap, starring Oscar winner Halle Berry. This is a film that was originally slated for 2015 but was held back due to Relativity going under, which left the film without a home. The film was rescued by a new independent company Aviron, run by David Dinerstein. The distributor declined to say how much they acquired it for so budget details aren’t available. Halle Berry had success with her name above the title of 2013’s The Call, which grossed $51 million on a $13 million budget. This film likely won’t match that but I see an $8-10 million opening in its future.
Check back Monday for the full box office results!
