Will Smith and Martin Lawrence return for the third installment of a franchise that made them movie stars 25 years in Bad Boys For Life and it’s a reunion that is likely to rule over the MLK holiday weekend.
It’s interesting to see that Bad Boys, when released in 1995, was a modest hit. The film was the directorial debut of cinematic God, Michael Bay (totally kidding) and it was the first big film for both Will Smith & Martin Lawrence, who were both on two highly successful sitcoms at the time. Bad Boys was originally written for Dana Carvey and Jon Lovitz but it was ultimately morphed into the film we ended up having and it cost a rather slim $19 million to make. The film went on to gross $65.8 million domestically and $141.4 million worldwide.
The sequel didn’t arrive until 2003 and by then, Smith and Lawrence were at the top of their fame while Michael Bay had perfected his all things go boom style of filmmaking. The budget for the sequel was nearly 6 times of that of the original at $130 million which goes to show how much times had changed between films. Bad Boys II ultimately grossed $138.6 million domestically and $273.3 million worldwide.
The franchise is obviously no stranger to big gaps between films and while some think it could be a detriment, I think the goodwill of its stars and their enduring chemistry is enough to make the 18 years since the last film feel like it was just yesterday. Returns to big franchises didn’t go entirely well in 2019 (Charlie’s Angels and MIB: International to name a few) but Bad Boys For Life isn’t trying to really reinvent the wheel here. They’re going for what works and that’s the camaraderie of its stars, surrounded by wall to wall action.
MLK weekend has been kind to a pair of other buddy cop films. Ride Along and Ride Along 2, starring Kevin Hart & Ice Cube, opened huge over this four-day frame to $48.6 million and $41 million respectively. Those film accomplished this with very rotten scores on Rotten Tomatoes (18% and 14%) but both films were well-received by moviegoers, something the Bad Boys franchise can also relate to. The first film is 43% rotten while its sequel is 23% rotten but despite this, both films received “A” CinemaScores, showing a disconnect between critics and casual moviegoers on this one. Bad Boys For Life is actually working with better reviews at 75% fresh as of this writing so I see no reason why the film won’t see a similar opening to the Ride Along films. Sony was smart and kept the budget low at $90 million and I’m hearing Bad Boys 4 is on the table, should this film prove to be successful. All signs point to a big weekend so I’m predicting a launch of $45-48 million for the weekend.
Robert Downey Jr. returns to the big screen for the first time since hanging it up as Iron Man in Avengers: Endgame with Dolittle, Universal Pictures very troubled and expensive adaptation about a man who can communicate with animals. There is no sugarcoating it: the film went through extensive reshoots and shifted release dates three times. The original release was set for May 24, 2019 but it was shifted to April 12, 2019 when rumors suggested Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker was eyeing the May 24 date. Star Wars was later moved to December 20, 2019 but three weeks of reshoots on Dolittle forced it to move again to its current January 2020 date. In the end, the film cost $175 million to make before marketing costs.
Dolittle is going to have ride on the goodwill of Robert Downey Jr. and worldwide grosses to even hope to break even. The film already opened No. 1 in South Korea with $6.8 million last weekend, and has already clocked well north of $9 million overseas heading into the weekend. Most of the overseas heavy lifting will belong to Australia, Netherlands, Indonesia and Colombia. China comes into play later in March.
Family films can play well over MLK weekend. The PG-rated Paul Blart: Mall Cop opened to $39.2 million over MLK weekend in 2009 so there is potential for a solid opening, which could happen if the film can entice the kids. Hurting the film even more is its very rotten score of 13% on Rotten Tomatoes but since the family film market is less crowded coming into the weekend, it’s possible that Dolittle can be a bit review proof, at least for its opening weekend. I’m predicting an opening of $27-30 million but I wouldn’t be surprised if the film was a undone a bit by questionable word of mouth.
